3 ms·

10% of patients require ICU with mechanical ventilators. Yes, it skews to the older population, but that doesn't exclude younger people entirely. The biggest c

10% of patients require ICU with mechanical ventilators. Yes, it skews to the older population, but that doesn't exclude younger people entirely. The biggest challenge is we only have ~20 mechanical ventilators per 100k people[0]. That means our entire nation's capacity for mechanical ventiation (excluding overload from regional clusters) is consumed with just 200 infections per 100k - or 660k infections of the US's 330 million. That doesn't account for baseline ICU/vent usage, which is estimated at at ~70% occupancy rate with 3 in 10 currently needing mechanical vents [1]. A fuzzy summary is 500k infections in the use will utilize all existing mechanical ventilators. [0] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/21149215 - this was 2010, but the most recent data I could easily find. [1] - https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23963122 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23963122

DennisP 7y ago
That's been worrying me. If we swamp our treatment infrastructure, the death rate could go up significantly.
codeulike 7y ago
South Korea have been testing more people than anyone else - 10,000 per day, drive-in test centres, results in two hours. If you look at the South Korea numbers here (scroll down a bit) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you see 43 deaths and 52 'serious/critical' cases from 6,593 confirmed cases, so about 0.75% for both categories. I'm hoping these South Korea numbers are giving us a more accurate picture of whats going on.
- dougmwne 7y ago
  I am also waiting to see a study on the final serious/fatal case rate on the Diamond Princess. Since that was a heavily monitored population given a high standard of care it should be a good indicator of what western countries are in for. Since the ages of the passengers will be known, they can age-weight the statistics to better compare to the general population. 706 infected passengers is a reasonable sample size.
  - codeulike 7y ago
    They would be mostly be old though. I would imagine very few people under 50 were on that ship. And the virus is known to be worse the older you are.
    - dougmwne 7y ago
      Yes, they will be able to age-weight the sample population in order to adjust for that.
LifeLiverTransp 7y ago
The goddess of triage lifts her steely finger. https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage

DennisP 7y ago

That's been worrying me. If we swamp our treatment infrastructure, the death rate could go up significantly.

codeulike 7y ago

South Korea have been testing more people than anyone else - 10,000 per day, drive-in test centres, results in two hours. If you look at the South Korea numbers here (scroll down a bit) https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ you see 43 deaths and 52 'serious/critical' cases from 6,593 confirmed cases, so about 0.75% for both categories. I'm hoping these South Korea numbers are giving us a more accurate picture of whats going on.

dougmwne 7y ago
I am also waiting to see a study on the final serious/fatal case rate on the Diamond Princess. Since that was a heavily monitored population given a high standard of care it should be a good indicator of what western countries are in for. Since the ages of the passengers will be known, they can age-weight the statistics to better compare to the general population. 706 infected passengers is a reasonable sample size.
- codeulike 7y ago
  They would be mostly be old though. I would imagine very few people under 50 were on that ship. And the virus is known to be worse the older you are.
  - dougmwne 7y ago
    Yes, they will be able to age-weight the sample population in order to adjust for that.

LifeLiverTransp 7y ago

The goddess of triage lifts her steely finger. https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Triage