2 ms·

That's what I mean by the "mild cases that are never diagnosed."

Alupis 7y ago
Well sure, but we could say that exact thing about the common flu too. If you're sick enough to go to the doctor and be diagnosed with the flu, there's likely an increased chance of it being fatal (in that your symptoms are extreme or you're already high-risk, ie. elderly or in poor health). Otherwise, like most folks, you just get better on your own in a few days. With the flu killing 10's of thousands every year, and nobody bats an eye... I'm not particularly concerned about COVID-19. It's mostly a media PR stunt at this point - designed to whip up fear and clicks. Swine Flu anyone?
- wahern 7y ago
  A case fatality rate (CFR) is calculated based on confirmed cases. The CFR for the flu[1] or any other disease is roughly based on the number of people who present to the hospital and are diagnosed, with or without serological testing. Therefore, in places with drive-by testing the CFR will be artificially lower. Likewise, using total infected as the denominator makes it a totally useless figure for comparison. Knowing that, it seems pretty clear that COVID-19 is more-or-less 10x deadlier[2] than seasonal influenza, as the CFR for seasonal flu is ~0.1-0.2%. [1] It's a little more complicated with the flu because of underreporting. I guess elderly pneumonia is common enough that doctors don't always care why it developed. So apparently the CDC uses a more complex model (e.g. total number of pneumonia cases minus base rate, non-flu season cases). But what they're trying to estimate is the CFR, which is by definition deaths/confirmed. [2] At least from an epidemiological perspective, regardless of the percentage of symptomatic cases / infections. At the end of the day what matters is how many will die, not how scared someone should be if they're infected.
  - Alupis 7y ago
    > A case fatality rate (CFR) is calculated based on confirmed cases. This is not true[1]. CDC projects the numbers and estimates total number of cases, because almost all of the actual cases are undiagnosed. So no, COVID-19 is not "more-or-less 10x deadlier" than the common Flu. Let's be clear. The media frenzy around COVID-19 is not grounded in science, and it purely designed to get panic people, resulting in clicks and eye-balls. Nothing more. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

Well sure, but we could say that exact thing about the common flu too. If you're sick enough to go to the doctor and be diagnosed with the flu, there's likely an increased chance of it being fatal (in that your symptoms are extreme or you're already high-risk, ie. elderly or in poor health). Otherwise, like most folks, you just get better on your own in a few days. With the flu killing 10's of thousands every year, and nobody bats an eye... I'm not particularly concerned about COVID-19. It's mostly a media PR stunt at this point - designed to whip up fear and clicks. Swine Flu anyone?

wahern 7y ago
A case fatality rate (CFR) is calculated based on confirmed cases. The CFR for the flu[1] or any other disease is roughly based on the number of people who present to the hospital and are diagnosed, with or without serological testing. Therefore, in places with drive-by testing the CFR will be artificially lower. Likewise, using total infected as the denominator makes it a totally useless figure for comparison. Knowing that, it seems pretty clear that COVID-19 is more-or-less 10x deadlier[2] than seasonal influenza, as the CFR for seasonal flu is ~0.1-0.2%. [1] It's a little more complicated with the flu because of underreporting. I guess elderly pneumonia is common enough that doctors don't always care why it developed. So apparently the CDC uses a more complex model (e.g. total number of pneumonia cases minus base rate, non-flu season cases). But what they're trying to estimate is the CFR, which is by definition deaths/confirmed. [2] At least from an epidemiological perspective, regardless of the percentage of symptomatic cases / infections. At the end of the day what matters is how many will die, not how scared someone should be if they're infected.
- Alupis 7y ago
  > A case fatality rate (CFR) is calculated based on confirmed cases. This is not true[1]. CDC projects the numbers and estimates total number of cases, because almost all of the actual cases are undiagnosed. So no, COVID-19 is not "more-or-less 10x deadlier" than the common Flu. Let's be clear. The media frenzy around COVID-19 is not grounded in science, and it purely designed to get panic people, resulting in clicks and eye-balls. Nothing more. [1] https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm