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The inflation thing has been an article of faith with Buffett and Munger. I think a fairly smart person could see that: unless the government has a bias against
by byrneseyeview 18y ago
The inflation thing has been an article of faith with Buffett and Munger. I think a fairly smart person could see that: unless the government has a bias against extending suffrage, you should expect politicians to advocate extending suffrage to more groups (so those groups feel they owe it to whoever let them vote); so there will be more voters; so politicians will have an incentive to do take more broadly redistributive action; so if they can have their money on the benefits (projects funded by deficit spending) but not on the costs (depreciation of financial assets), they'll go for it. This is a huge part of the reason that Buffett and Munger have moved away from capital-intensive industries.
I thought one interesting part was the mix of different cognitive biases used to make Coke popular: the idea that universal distribution was a form of 'social proof' was new to me (the first time I read it; KO is up about 40% including dividends since then).
And the inflation thing should not be a big deal. Besides those paragraphs, the essay holds true if you have a real-money target (with the same compounded growth) or a target in terms of ounces of gold or cowrie shells. It's not like Coca-Cola made their money because they were short the dollar through leverage.
- Prrometheus 18y ago>And the inflation thing should not be a big deal. I know it's not a big deal, it's just in an early paragraph and a glaring example of hindsight. If you'll recall, in the late 19th century farmers in the United States wanted to legalize silver as currency because deflation was making it hard for them to pay back their mortgages.