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That no other province in China had uncontrolled spread while multiple countries outside of China have indicates that with a high degree of confidence that Chin

That no other province in China had uncontrolled spread while multiple countries outside of China have indicates that with a high degree of confidence that China's tactics work. Similarly, Taiwan and Singapore both managed to contain the spread with somewhat less harsh measures which provides evidence that China might have somewhat overreacted but that overreaction is better than underreaction. As Iran showed, you can try and fudge the numbers around the margins but once it becomes a pandemic, it becomes impossible to hide so we can say to a high degree of confidence that China is 33 for 33 in managing to contain the virus in all non-Hubei provinces.

PeterisP 7y ago
Taiwan and Singapore both managed to contain the spread with somewhat less harsh measures which provides evidence that China underreacted. Containment in Taiwan and Singapore was possible because extensive measures such as strict quarantine, testing and tracing all contacts were implemented pretty much immediately since the first few cases. China delayed reaction for many weeks, so much harsher containment measures were necessary since the outbreak was already widespread; starting the same measures a week or two earlier would have meant much smaller scale of disruption. On the other hand, if countries refuse to take highly visible measures until there are hundreds of known cases - well, by that time it's far, far too late for a Singapore-like approach to be usful.
- duxup 7y ago
  Personally I suspect any under reaction in China has its roots in the difficulty between local government not wanting to be honest or transparent with the central government...and the dynamics that come with that (including less than ideal responses from the central government). But the opaque nature of China makes it all hard to know.
- shalmanese 7y ago
  Yeah, with the benefit of hindsight, it's undoubtably true that the Hubei provincial government fucked up, nobody is denying that. But every other provincial government in China was facing the same situation other national governments were facing, they had a stream of Hubei residents filtering through their communities, causing community spread and lighting a ticking time bomb. But every one of the provincial governments got their situation under control with the political backing of the central government while nations outside of China clearly failed to get it under control because they didn't have the will to react so harshly. This is strong evidence that any nation that chooses to clamp down as hard as the Chinese can get it under control with something approaching a 100% probability. Whether it's possible lighter weight mechanisms can still get it under control is an open question but we at least have the upper limit of how much you need to shut down your country to kill COVID 19.

PeterisP 7y ago

Taiwan and Singapore both managed to contain the spread with somewhat less harsh measures which provides evidence that China underreacted. Containment in Taiwan and Singapore was possible because extensive measures such as strict quarantine, testing and tracing all contacts were implemented pretty much immediately since the first few cases. China delayed reaction for many weeks, so much harsher containment measures were necessary since the outbreak was already widespread; starting the same measures a week or two earlier would have meant much smaller scale of disruption. On the other hand, if countries refuse to take highly visible measures until there are hundreds of known cases - well, by that time it's far, far too late for a Singapore-like approach to be usful.

duxup 7y ago
Personally I suspect any under reaction in China has its roots in the difficulty between local government not wanting to be honest or transparent with the central government...and the dynamics that come with that (including less than ideal responses from the central government). But the opaque nature of China makes it all hard to know.
shalmanese 7y ago
Yeah, with the benefit of hindsight, it's undoubtably true that the Hubei provincial government fucked up, nobody is denying that. But every other provincial government in China was facing the same situation other national governments were facing, they had a stream of Hubei residents filtering through their communities, causing community spread and lighting a ticking time bomb. But every one of the provincial governments got their situation under control with the political backing of the central government while nations outside of China clearly failed to get it under control because they didn't have the will to react so harshly. This is strong evidence that any nation that chooses to clamp down as hard as the Chinese can get it under control with something approaching a 100% probability. Whether it's possible lighter weight mechanisms can still get it under control is an open question but we at least have the upper limit of how much you need to shut down your country to kill COVID 19.