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Yes the WHO report is very clear : mortality in Wuhan is 6% because they were overwhelmed by the number of cases. The lack of decisiveness in the west worries

Yes the WHO report is very clear : mortality in Wuhan is 6% because they were overwhelmed by the number of cases. The lack of decisiveness in the west worries me. It's like they wait for the hospitals to be full before they decide quarantine might be in order.

n0rbwah 7y ago
I can't speak for all western countries but in my country (France) if the government tried to impose quarantine on the same level as China, I'd expect riots. People here aren't as docile as Chinese people and don't fear their government. If a city was quarantined like Wuhan with the situation turning to shit, many people would take to the street to protest instead of staying nicely confined at home. And if the government's repression got too harsh there, you'd get protests all around the country in support. That's why I haven't heard anything from my government about potential large-scale quarantine. They know that here it probably would make the situation worse.
- baq 7y ago
  1) martial law will deal with eventual riots. 2) i wouldn't be so sure that quarantine measures would be such universally disliked. it'll take a couple deaths and a few tv interviews with medical personnel with an overwhelmed hospital in the background to sway the public emotion in the containment direction. it better be executed well, though, or riots become a serious proposition.
  - pjc50 7y ago
    This is France we're talking about. There's already been a recent series of riots where a number of people have suffered debilitating injuries from the heavy riot control tactics - 24 people lost eyes! Where do you escalate from that? Machine-gunning people in the streets?
- saiya-jin 7y ago
  Ah yes the famous french protests just about anything they don't like on a given day. It would be supremely stupid and arrogant to go to mass protests when facing such quarantine due to deadly virus like this one, but I have no doubt that's exactly how it would unroll en France.
  - n0rbwah 7y ago
    IMO, this virus isn't as deadly as that. It was reasonable for China to implement such measures because 1) at the time they didn't know how bad it was and 2) their people are actually quite compliant with what their government asks them. But now, we know this virus isn't ebola's death rate combined with measle's R0. Large scale quarantine like in China is probably overkill and quite risky if your population isn't as docile as populations in authoritarians regimes. Closing schools, cancelling mass events and asking people to work from home if they can is a more measured approach. Even without that, the apocalypse isn't coming anytime soon.
- mytailorisrich 7y ago
  > People here aren't as docile as Chinese people and don't fear their government Don't underestimate the sense of doing what's good for the community and the patriotism of the Chinese people (and I'm sure many others). I think they understood what was at stake and what had to be done, and did it but not because they are "docile" or because they "fear their government".
  - n0rbwah 7y ago
    Yes, people here aren't that eager to make sacrifices for the greater good. Unless it's other people doing the sacrificing.
- gdy 7y ago
  I hope by 'docile' you mean wise and responsible.
photon-torpedo 7y ago
> The lack of decisiveness in the west worries me. From a cynical point of view, the governments in the west might see this disease as a god-send. It mostly kills the old and sick. So if you let it run its course through the whole population, the strain on pension and public health systems will (eventually) be reduced -- "sozialverträgliches Frühableben" as one German top medic once called it. A disease that mostly leaves the young and productive part of the population intact might thus be welcomed as a solution to the demographic problems in the west. Note, I don't agree with this point of view, but it might help explain the timid response in the west.
- koheripbal 7y ago
  This is good news for stocks in 2021.
lm28469 7y ago
People think it's harmless, which makes them not worry about it at all, which in turns makes it much more dangerous than it would be if we took basic decisions. Everyone in my office could work from home, but we're not allowed because "it's not that bad" yet. One of my colleague is coughing for a week and still coming in and everyone is making joke about "aha he could be patient 0 here".

n0rbwah 7y ago

I can't speak for all western countries but in my country (France) if the government tried to impose quarantine on the same level as China, I'd expect riots. People here aren't as docile as Chinese people and don't fear their government. If a city was quarantined like Wuhan with the situation turning to shit, many people would take to the street to protest instead of staying nicely confined at home. And if the government's repression got too harsh there, you'd get protests all around the country in support. That's why I haven't heard anything from my government about potential large-scale quarantine. They know that here it probably would make the situation worse.

baq 7y ago
1) martial law will deal with eventual riots. 2) i wouldn't be so sure that quarantine measures would be such universally disliked. it'll take a couple deaths and a few tv interviews with medical personnel with an overwhelmed hospital in the background to sway the public emotion in the containment direction. it better be executed well, though, or riots become a serious proposition.
- pjc50 7y ago
  This is France we're talking about. There's already been a recent series of riots where a number of people have suffered debilitating injuries from the heavy riot control tactics - 24 people lost eyes! Where do you escalate from that? Machine-gunning people in the streets?
saiya-jin 7y ago
Ah yes the famous french protests just about anything they don't like on a given day. It would be supremely stupid and arrogant to go to mass protests when facing such quarantine due to deadly virus like this one, but I have no doubt that's exactly how it would unroll en France.
- n0rbwah 7y ago
  IMO, this virus isn't as deadly as that. It was reasonable for China to implement such measures because 1) at the time they didn't know how bad it was and 2) their people are actually quite compliant with what their government asks them. But now, we know this virus isn't ebola's death rate combined with measle's R0. Large scale quarantine like in China is probably overkill and quite risky if your population isn't as docile as populations in authoritarians regimes. Closing schools, cancelling mass events and asking people to work from home if they can is a more measured approach. Even without that, the apocalypse isn't coming anytime soon.
mytailorisrich 7y ago
> People here aren't as docile as Chinese people and don't fear their government Don't underestimate the sense of doing what's good for the community and the patriotism of the Chinese people (and I'm sure many others). I think they understood what was at stake and what had to be done, and did it but not because they are "docile" or because they "fear their government".
- n0rbwah 7y ago
  Yes, people here aren't that eager to make sacrifices for the greater good. Unless it's other people doing the sacrificing.
gdy 7y ago
I hope by 'docile' you mean wise and responsible.

photon-torpedo 7y ago

> The lack of decisiveness in the west worries me. From a cynical point of view, the governments in the west might see this disease as a god-send. It mostly kills the old and sick. So if you let it run its course through the whole population, the strain on pension and public health systems will (eventually) be reduced -- "sozialverträgliches Frühableben" as one German top medic once called it. A disease that mostly leaves the young and productive part of the population intact might thus be welcomed as a solution to the demographic problems in the west. Note, I don't agree with this point of view, but it might help explain the timid response in the west.

koheripbal 7y ago
This is good news for stocks in 2021.

lm28469 7y ago

People think it's harmless, which makes them not worry about it at all, which in turns makes it much more dangerous than it would be if we took basic decisions. Everyone in my office could work from home, but we're not allowed because "it's not that bad" yet. One of my colleague is coughing for a week and still coming in and everyone is making joke about "aha he could be patient 0 here".