2 ms·

If the average time of infection to death is 18 days and the doubling time is 5 days, 10 deaths today would indicate at a 2% mortality rate: 500 infections 18

• zaroth 7y ago
  This is an interesting simulation, but keep in mind you are extrapolating both backwards by 50x and then, from there, also forwards with an aggressive exponential multiplier, all starting with a very low n. So there are an enormous number of variables which can cause reality to diverge. Each on of those 10 deaths have a unique situation which lead to that point. For example, if they are all related to the same cluster (and I believe they are), and that cluster is an elderly demographic which doesn’t get outside much, then the R0 will be significantly lower than 10 totally unrelated business people traveling for work, or who might feel pressure to go into their offices despite feeling a bit feverish... totally different profiles and potential impact.