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I don't trust the numbers from Italy and China - Italy because they seem to have lost the control completely and there seems to be no proper testing of signific

I don't trust the numbers from Italy and China - Italy because they seem to have lost the control completely and there seems to be no proper testing of significant population or tracking of the infected patients, and China because...China. So far, it seems Korea has the best data over the situation, and is likely the most applicable for countries with proper public health and medical systems. Per Korea's Ministry of Health and Welfare - http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/upload/viewer/skin/doc.html?fn=1583372501478_20200305104145.pdf&rs=/upload/viewer/result/202003/ http://ncov.mohw.go.kr/upload/viewer/skin/doc.html?fn=158337... As of today, 150K people tested, 5766 infected, 35 death, 0.6% fatality rate. Their age distribution looks interesting: 0-30: ~2k infected, and no death. 30-50: ~1.5K infected, 2 death (0.1%) 50-59: 1127 infected, 5 death (0.4%) 60-69: 699 infected, 8 death (1.1%) 70-79: 288 infected, 13 death (4.5%) 80+: 127 infected, 7 death (5.6%) Their number of infected graph is showing some sign of deceleration - the growth rate seems to be leveling off or slowing down slightly.

eric-hu 7y ago
I think Italy is particularly worth paying attention to as a bad case approximation of what can happen in the US. About a week ago, Korea had tested 90k people while the US had 400 tests available and fewer tested.
- dpau 7y ago
  Besides lack of testing, the US could turn out even worse than Italy given that many lack insurance and/or cannot afford to call in sick.
  - counterpoint1 7y ago
    I'm growing tired of this meme. Everybody in the US has insurance, that was literally a major point of contention to Obamacare - the left didn't like that the solution still used private insurers and the right didn't like that they were forced to buy something. If you have a low income, you get subsidized premiums. For sick pay, it's just a lack of budgeting and planning. If you have a job that pays you $12/hr with no paid leave time or a job that pays you $10/hr with an accumulation of leave hours, it's still the same in the end if you work X days and are sick Y days and get a monthly income of $ZZZ, just in one case your employer is holding back your leave pay and in the other case you're paid full value up front and save for your leave period yourself.
    - lm28469 7y ago
      > Everybody in the US has insurance Isn't that factually wrong ?https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/number-americans-without-health-insurance-rises-1st-time-decade-n1052016 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/number-americ... > it's just a lack of budgeting and planning. Which people living paycheck to paycheck can't do. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/nearly-half-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-bank-survey https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/nearly-half-american...
      - klmadfejno 7y ago
        It is factually wrong. The correct way to phrase it would be that anyone can commit moral hazard and sign up for a public plan in response to a sudden need for medical treatment. So insurance can be available in a way that defeats the purpose of insurance systems. However: 1) This is not free 2) This is not likely to save you from enormous medical costs 3) This is about on par with filing taxes. Probably easy to do if you understand the basics of whats going on, but few people do.
Camillo 7y ago
> I don't trust the numbers from Italy and China - Italy because they seem to have lost the control completely and there seems to be no proper testing of significant population or tracking of the infected patients Based on what? Italy is the country that ran the third highest number of tests. Only China and South Korea ran more. [0] I hope you don't imagine that the US is doing better than Italy, because you're in for a rude awakening. [0]: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/
flukus 7y ago
I'd love to see an age breakdown of infected from other countries, that alone could explain their lower fatality rate.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]

eric-hu 7y ago

I think Italy is particularly worth paying attention to as a bad case approximation of what can happen in the US. About a week ago, Korea had tested 90k people while the US had 400 tests available and fewer tested.

dpau 7y ago
Besides lack of testing, the US could turn out even worse than Italy given that many lack insurance and/or cannot afford to call in sick.
- counterpoint1 7y ago
  I'm growing tired of this meme. Everybody in the US has insurance, that was literally a major point of contention to Obamacare - the left didn't like that the solution still used private insurers and the right didn't like that they were forced to buy something. If you have a low income, you get subsidized premiums. For sick pay, it's just a lack of budgeting and planning. If you have a job that pays you $12/hr with no paid leave time or a job that pays you $10/hr with an accumulation of leave hours, it's still the same in the end if you work X days and are sick Y days and get a monthly income of $ZZZ, just in one case your employer is holding back your leave pay and in the other case you're paid full value up front and save for your leave period yourself.
  - lm28469 7y ago
    > Everybody in the US has insurance Isn't that factually wrong ?https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/number-americans-without-health-insurance-rises-1st-time-decade-n1052016 https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/number-americ... > it's just a lack of budgeting and planning. Which people living paycheck to paycheck can't do. https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/nearly-half-americans-live-paycheck-to-paycheck-bank-survey https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/nearly-half-american...
    - klmadfejno 7y ago
      It is factually wrong. The correct way to phrase it would be that anyone can commit moral hazard and sign up for a public plan in response to a sudden need for medical treatment. So insurance can be available in a way that defeats the purpose of insurance systems. However: 1) This is not free 2) This is not likely to save you from enormous medical costs 3) This is about on par with filing taxes. Probably easy to do if you understand the basics of whats going on, but few people do.

Camillo 7y ago

> I don't trust the numbers from Italy and China - Italy because they seem to have lost the control completely and there seems to be no proper testing of significant population or tracking of the infected patients Based on what? Italy is the country that ran the third highest number of tests. Only China and South Korea ran more. [0] I hope you don't imagine that the US is doing better than Italy, because you're in for a rude awakening. [0]: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/covid-19-testing/

flukus 7y ago

I'd love to see an age breakdown of infected from other countries, that alone could explain their lower fatality rate.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]