Some nits: > the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3% The CFR reported in Wuhan is 4-5% and some reports from early February estimate

Some nits: > the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3% The CFR reported in Wuhan is 4-5% and some reports from early February estimated it as high as 18% [0]. We're seeing a similar CFR reported in Iran. Naturally, the CFR is higher after the medical system collapses. > historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high That's not always true. Early estimates of the 2003 SARS epidemic placed the CFR around 2-3%, but a re-analysis of the data several years later placed it at 9%. On the other hand, early estimates of the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic placed it at 0.4% CFR [1] , however it fell to below 0.01% [2]. It's difficult to know the real CFR of an epidemic until after it's completed. > In South Korea ... the rate is about 0.4%. Currently, South Korea has 6,088 confirmed cases and 42 deaths [3], which is a 0.6% CFR. However, that CFR assumes 100% of the 5,958 remaining cases will survive. The CFR in Korea is biased as it includes many people in the initial stages of the illness. [0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.h... [2] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researchers-estimate-relatively-low-h1n1-fatality-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researche... [3] Currently reporting 6,088 confirmed cases, 42 deaths, and 88 recovered. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...