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I may live in a bubble, but i keep asking myself why politics and media are so alarmed about this virus. There is such a huge gap beyween actual numbers and pre

by bsaul 7y ago

I may live in a bubble, but i keep asking myself why politics and media are so alarmed about this virus. There is such a huge gap beyween actual numbers and precautionary measures that i start to hear people say the only explanation is that politics are hiding the real numbers. For me, i keep thinking they’re just covering their ass, but did i miss something ?

downrightmike 7y ago
The market and economy haven't actually improved since 2008, the Federal Reserve has been pumping money in. The inflation estimates no longer include food or gas. Average home price is $350k now vs $250 in 2008 and we have a major homeless epidemic. Which once someone in that population is sick, they'll all be sick and they are concentrated in major cities. And Covid-19 illustrates just how fake and how little we've really recovered. It is really highlighting the problems that aren't getting resolved. Basically exposing all the sharp rocks under the boat that we're about to crash on.
jariel 7y ago
No, the reaction is reasonable so far. 1) We know it's a fairly dangerous virus 2) We know it spreads easy enough 3) We know enough people get 'really sick' and require highly specialized medical intervention, enough that without controls it will totally overwhelm medical facilities. 4) We know that in order to stop the spread, you basically have to quarantine cities, shut down factories, have everyone everywhere wearing masks - have a look at Wuhan, it's like a ghost city. 5) The city went from a small number of cases to thousands quickly 6) Italy, Iran and S. Korea have seen small numbrers of cases explode and medical facilities are being overwhelmed in some spots. 7) Small numbers of cases in any country could easy grow into what we see in other countries. 8) The precautions taken in the West are mostly refusing travel from some areas, checking the health of others, focusing hard on those testing positive, ramping up testing abilities, getting the medical system prepared for the worst, trying to keep people from panicking. Corona is pretty scary - if it 'gets out' in America it's going to cause serious social upheaval and damage. It will be scary, especially because many people have no health insurance. A long term existential question will arise if America isn't able to treat those without coverage - it's basically untenable. If people start to die in any numbers in America because they don't have coverage, it will imply a major upheaval of healthcare in the country to the point wherein I think some kind of socialized medicine will have to happen.
- dboreham 7y ago
  At this point isn't it fairly certain it has "got out" (random cases reported all over the place -- a cruise ship, but not _that_ cruise ship, etc)? Hopefully the fact that we don't see rampant illness, overflowing hospitals and large numbers of dying patients reflects some aspect of the disease (perhaps it doesn't spread as well in US society due to non-use of public transit, or genetic factors in the population, or environmental factors such as UV exposure), rather than success in containment? As far as the healthcare system goes: people get treated without coverage already, and we seem to have plenty of hospital capacity. The bizarro healthcare economy does seem to present a big risk however in terms of discouraging people from seeking medical treatment in the early stages for fear of receiving large bills that they can't afford (this happens even if you do have insurance).
yumraj 7y ago
Is 3.4% mortality per WHO not high enough or does it not warrant the precautionary measures? If at all, there need to be more precautionary measures, not less. Poorer, densely populated countries in Asia and Africa are especially vulnerable since they will not be able to isolate populations or treat in ICUs or build 1000 bed hospitals in 10 days, and at 3.4% we're going to see millions of dead. I really really hope I'm wrong, but what if I'm not.
skmurphy 7y ago
It's the potential for exponential growth that has people concerned: look at growth rate of new cases in Korea, Italy, and Iran in last two weeks. US is harder to judge due to lack of testing, may be experiencing the same case rate growth. Numbers in China were bad and it the equivalent of martial law for weeks to slow new cases to a trickle. It's not clear they are out of the woods and may see additional flare ups as they relax restrictions. It's precisely because precautionary measure are being taken (I have seen notices of cancellation and lists of mandatory precautionary measures for more than a dozen events just in last two days).

by bsaul 7y ago

downrightmike 7y ago

The market and economy haven't actually improved since 2008, the Federal Reserve has been pumping money in. The inflation estimates no longer include food or gas. Average home price is $350k now vs $250 in 2008 and we have a major homeless epidemic. Which once someone in that population is sick, they'll all be sick and they are concentrated in major cities. And Covid-19 illustrates just how fake and how little we've really recovered. It is really highlighting the problems that aren't getting resolved. Basically exposing all the sharp rocks under the boat that we're about to crash on.

jariel 7y ago

No, the reaction is reasonable so far. 1) We know it's a fairly dangerous virus 2) We know it spreads easy enough 3) We know enough people get 'really sick' and require highly specialized medical intervention, enough that without controls it will totally overwhelm medical facilities. 4) We know that in order to stop the spread, you basically have to quarantine cities, shut down factories, have everyone everywhere wearing masks - have a look at Wuhan, it's like a ghost city. 5) The city went from a small number of cases to thousands quickly 6) Italy, Iran and S. Korea have seen small numbrers of cases explode and medical facilities are being overwhelmed in some spots. 7) Small numbers of cases in any country could easy grow into what we see in other countries. 8) The precautions taken in the West are mostly refusing travel from some areas, checking the health of others, focusing hard on those testing positive, ramping up testing abilities, getting the medical system prepared for the worst, trying to keep people from panicking. Corona is pretty scary - if it 'gets out' in America it's going to cause serious social upheaval and damage. It will be scary, especially because many people have no health insurance. A long term existential question will arise if America isn't able to treat those without coverage - it's basically untenable. If people start to die in any numbers in America because they don't have coverage, it will imply a major upheaval of healthcare in the country to the point wherein I think some kind of socialized medicine will have to happen.

dboreham 7y ago
At this point isn't it fairly certain it has "got out" (random cases reported all over the place -- a cruise ship, but not _that_ cruise ship, etc)? Hopefully the fact that we don't see rampant illness, overflowing hospitals and large numbers of dying patients reflects some aspect of the disease (perhaps it doesn't spread as well in US society due to non-use of public transit, or genetic factors in the population, or environmental factors such as UV exposure), rather than success in containment? As far as the healthcare system goes: people get treated without coverage already, and we seem to have plenty of hospital capacity. The bizarro healthcare economy does seem to present a big risk however in terms of discouraging people from seeking medical treatment in the early stages for fear of receiving large bills that they can't afford (this happens even if you do have insurance).

yumraj 7y ago

Is 3.4% mortality per WHO not high enough or does it not warrant the precautionary measures? If at all, there need to be more precautionary measures, not less. Poorer, densely populated countries in Asia and Africa are especially vulnerable since they will not be able to isolate populations or treat in ICUs or build 1000 bed hospitals in 10 days, and at 3.4% we're going to see millions of dead. I really really hope I'm wrong, but what if I'm not.

skmurphy 7y ago

It's the potential for exponential growth that has people concerned: look at growth rate of new cases in Korea, Italy, and Iran in last two weeks. US is harder to judge due to lack of testing, may be experiencing the same case rate growth. Numbers in China were bad and it the equivalent of martial law for weeks to slow new cases to a trickle. It's not clear they are out of the woods and may see additional flare ups as they relax restrictions. It's precisely because precautionary measure are being taken (I have seen notices of cancellation and lists of mandatory precautionary measures for more than a dozen events just in last two days).