3 ms·

The mortality rate of “regular” flu is 0.1-0.2%; even the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3%, and historically the initial mortality

The mortality rate of “regular” flu is 0.1-0.2%; even the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3%, and historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high because proper testing regimes aren’t in place. In South Korea, where they’re far and away testing the most suspected cases (around 10K tests a day, ramping up to 20K), the rate is about 0.4%.

sweeneyrod 7y ago
Yes sorry I meant 10x.
tristanj 7y ago
Some nits: > the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3% The CFR reported in Wuhan is 4-5% and some reports from early February estimated it as high as 18% [0]. We're seeing a similar CFR reported in Iran. Naturally, the CFR is higher after the medical system collapses. > historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high That's not always true. Early estimates of the 2003 SARS epidemic placed the CFR around 2-3%, but a re-analysis of the data several years later placed it at 9%. On the other hand, early estimates of the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic placed it at 0.4% CFR [1] , however it fell to below 0.01% [2]. It's difficult to know the real CFR of an epidemic until after it's completed. > In South Korea ... the rate is about 0.4%. Currently, South Korea has 6,088 confirmed cases and 42 deaths [3], which is a 0.6% CFR. However, that CFR assumes 100% of the 5,958 remaining cases will survive. The CFR in Korea is biased as it includes many people in the initial stages of the illness. [0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.h... [2] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researchers-estimate-relatively-low-h1n1-fatality-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researche... [3] Currently reporting 6,088 confirmed cases, 42 deaths, and 88 recovered. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...
- joshuamorton 7y ago
  If you exclude hubei, in China, the fatality rate among confirmed cases is under 1%. I expect this is due to the confluence of a few factors. Deaths happen faster than recoveries, more acute cases are easier to detect than the mild ones, except in places where they're proactively testing (China, Korea)

sweeneyrod 7y ago

Yes sorry I meant 10x.

tristanj 7y ago

Some nits: > the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3% The CFR reported in Wuhan is 4-5% and some reports from early February estimated it as high as 18% [0]. We're seeing a similar CFR reported in Iran. Naturally, the CFR is higher after the medical system collapses. > historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high That's not always true. Early estimates of the 2003 SARS epidemic placed the CFR around 2-3%, but a re-analysis of the data several years later placed it at 9%. On the other hand, early estimates of the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic placed it at 0.4% CFR [1] , however it fell to below 0.01% [2]. It's difficult to know the real CFR of an epidemic until after it's completed. > In South Korea ... the rate is about 0.4%. Currently, South Korea has 6,088 confirmed cases and 42 deaths [3], which is a 0.6% CFR. However, that CFR assumes 100% of the 5,958 remaining cases will survive. The CFR in Korea is biased as it includes many people in the initial stages of the illness. [0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.h... [2] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researchers-estimate-relatively-low-h1n1-fatality-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researche... [3] Currently reporting 6,088 confirmed cases, 42 deaths, and 88 recovered. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...

joshuamorton 7y ago
If you exclude hubei, in China, the fatality rate among confirmed cases is under 1%. I expect this is due to the confluence of a few factors. Deaths happen faster than recoveries, more acute cases are easier to detect than the mild ones, except in places where they're proactively testing (China, Korea)