5 ms·

COVID19 has probably already killed more people than Zika or SARS or MERS and seems very likely to kill more people than the recent Ebola outbreak (unless there

COVID19 has probably already killed more people than Zika or SARS or MERS and seems very likely to kill more people than the recent Ebola outbreak (unless there is some reason to believe it's going to stop spreading very soon). Its mortality rate is 10x that of swine flu. HIV/AIDS very much was a black swan.

chipotle_coyote 7y ago
The mortality rate of “regular” flu is 0.1-0.2%; even the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3%, and historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high because proper testing regimes aren’t in place. In South Korea, where they’re far and away testing the most suspected cases (around 10K tests a day, ramping up to 20K), the rate is about 0.4%.
- sweeneyrod 7y ago
  Yes sorry I meant 10x.
- tristanj 7y ago
  Some nits: > the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3% The CFR reported in Wuhan is 4-5% and some reports from early February estimated it as high as 18% [0]. We're seeing a similar CFR reported in Iran. Naturally, the CFR is higher after the medical system collapses. > historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high That's not always true. Early estimates of the 2003 SARS epidemic placed the CFR around 2-3%, but a re-analysis of the data several years later placed it at 9%. On the other hand, early estimates of the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic placed it at 0.4% CFR [1] , however it fell to below 0.01% [2]. It's difficult to know the real CFR of an epidemic until after it's completed. > In South Korea ... the rate is about 0.4%. Currently, South Korea has 6,088 confirmed cases and 42 deaths [3], which is a 0.6% CFR. However, that CFR assumes 100% of the 5,958 remaining cases will survive. The CFR in Korea is biased as it includes many people in the initial stages of the illness. [0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.h... [2] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researchers-estimate-relatively-low-h1n1-fatality-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researche... [3] Currently reporting 6,088 confirmed cases, 42 deaths, and 88 recovered. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...
  - joshuamorton 7y ago
    If you exclude hubei, in China, the fatality rate among confirmed cases is under 1%. I expect this is due to the confluence of a few factors. Deaths happen faster than recoveries, more acute cases are easier to detect than the mild ones, except in places where they're proactively testing (China, Korea)
kenneth 7y ago
HIV/AIDS is very different in that it takes a long time to kill. It doesn't lead to the breakdown of infrastructure because you suddenly have a million people showing up at the hospital at the same time. That property is also what helps it spread so much despite not being very contagious. It's very hard to catch HIV. Making out with a someone positive is unlikely to transmit. Heterosexual vaginal sex is also unlikely to transmit (especially for the man who is at much lower risk). With SARS-CoV-2 all it takes is touching the same surface. This is what makes HIV manageable and not a black swan to global market, while the Wuhan coronavirus is.
- SamReidHughes 7y ago
  HIV was a major black swan to Africa.

chipotle_coyote 7y ago

The mortality rate of “regular” flu is 0.1-0.2%; even the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3%, and historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high because proper testing regimes aren’t in place. In South Korea, where they’re far and away testing the most suspected cases (around 10K tests a day, ramping up to 20K), the rate is about 0.4%.

sweeneyrod 7y ago
Yes sorry I meant 10x.
tristanj 7y ago
Some nits: > the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3% The CFR reported in Wuhan is 4-5% and some reports from early February estimated it as high as 18% [0]. We're seeing a similar CFR reported in Iran. Naturally, the CFR is higher after the medical system collapses. > historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high That's not always true. Early estimates of the 2003 SARS epidemic placed the CFR around 2-3%, but a re-analysis of the data several years later placed it at 9%. On the other hand, early estimates of the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic placed it at 0.4% CFR [1] , however it fell to below 0.01% [2]. It's difficult to know the real CFR of an epidemic until after it's completed. > In South Korea ... the rate is about 0.4%. Currently, South Korea has 6,088 confirmed cases and 42 deaths [3], which is a 0.6% CFR. However, that CFR assumes 100% of the 5,958 remaining cases will survive. The CFR in Korea is biased as it includes many people in the initial stages of the illness. [0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.h... [2] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researchers-estimate-relatively-low-h1n1-fatality-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researche... [3] Currently reporting 6,088 confirmed cases, 42 deaths, and 88 recovered. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...
- joshuamorton 7y ago
  If you exclude hubei, in China, the fatality rate among confirmed cases is under 1%. I expect this is due to the confluence of a few factors. Deaths happen faster than recoveries, more acute cases are easier to detect than the mild ones, except in places where they're proactively testing (China, Korea)

kenneth 7y ago

HIV/AIDS is very different in that it takes a long time to kill. It doesn't lead to the breakdown of infrastructure because you suddenly have a million people showing up at the hospital at the same time. That property is also what helps it spread so much despite not being very contagious. It's very hard to catch HIV. Making out with a someone positive is unlikely to transmit. Heterosexual vaginal sex is also unlikely to transmit (especially for the man who is at much lower risk). With SARS-CoV-2 all it takes is touching the same surface. This is what makes HIV manageable and not a black swan to global market, while the Wuhan coronavirus is.

SamReidHughes 7y ago
HIV was a major black swan to Africa.