4 ms·

Calling COVID-19 a “black swan” is an abuse of the term, IMO. Zika in 2016, Ebola in 2014, MERS in 2012, H1N1 in 2009, SARS in 2002, HIV in 1980, H3N2 in 1968,

Calling COVID-19 a “black swan” is an abuse of the term, IMO. Zika in 2016, Ebola in 2014, MERS in 2012, H1N1 in 2009, SARS in 2002, HIV in 1980, H3N2 in 1968, H2N2 in 1957.... A viral disease outbreak, like a stock market crash, is very hard to time precisely, but everybody knows that it’s a thing that happens regularly. That’s the exact opposite of a black swan; if it’s something you didn’t plan for, well, that’s on you.

mc32 7y ago
By your definition it seems a meteor strike of consequence would not be a black swan event because we know they have happened and we know they will continue to happen. I guess to make it useful we have calibrate the meaning to actually mean something useful that we can understand.
- intuitionist 7y ago
  I count four pandemics in my list that would have occurred in the lifetime of many of Sequoia’s GPs. That’s a base rate many orders of magnitude higher than significant meteor strikes.
- edmundsauto 7y ago
  Black swans, by definition, are things that we could not have predicted. That where the power lies -- they change everything. Rare events like viral outbreaks are probably not in this category. That doesn't mean they aren't impactful or relevant, but OP is right - they're not a black swan, in the definition created by Taleb.
sweeneyrod 7y ago
COVID19 has probably already killed more people than Zika or SARS or MERS and seems very likely to kill more people than the recent Ebola outbreak (unless there is some reason to believe it's going to stop spreading very soon). Its mortality rate is 10x that of swine flu. HIV/AIDS very much was a black swan.
- chipotle_coyote 7y ago
  The mortality rate of “regular” flu is 0.1-0.2%; even the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3%, and historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high because proper testing regimes aren’t in place. In South Korea, where they’re far and away testing the most suspected cases (around 10K tests a day, ramping up to 20K), the rate is about 0.4%.
  - sweeneyrod 7y ago
    Yes sorry I meant 10x.
  - tristanj 7y ago
    Some nits: > the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3% The CFR reported in Wuhan is 4-5% and some reports from early February estimated it as high as 18% [0]. We're seeing a similar CFR reported in Iran. Naturally, the CFR is higher after the medical system collapses. > historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high That's not always true. Early estimates of the 2003 SARS epidemic placed the CFR around 2-3%, but a re-analysis of the data several years later placed it at 9%. On the other hand, early estimates of the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic placed it at 0.4% CFR [1] , however it fell to below 0.01% [2]. It's difficult to know the real CFR of an epidemic until after it's completed. > In South Korea ... the rate is about 0.4%. Currently, South Korea has 6,088 confirmed cases and 42 deaths [3], which is a 0.6% CFR. However, that CFR assumes 100% of the 5,958 remaining cases will survive. The CFR in Korea is biased as it includes many people in the initial stages of the illness. [0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.h... [2] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researchers-estimate-relatively-low-h1n1-fatality-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researche... [3] Currently reporting 6,088 confirmed cases, 42 deaths, and 88 recovered. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...
mrb 7y ago
A black swan is a rare event. It's appropriate for COVID-19, as its death toll is either already higher than some of the outbreaks you listed, or is expected to surpass them in the near future. Bill Gates called COVID-19 a once-in-a-century pandemic (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762) Death tolls: • less than 11k: Zika, Ebola, MERS, SARS • 575k for H1N1 (2009) • 1M for H3N2 (1968) • 2M for H2N2 (1957) • 32M for HIV By the end of March, COVID-19 will have killed more than the diseases in the first bullet point. Within a year, COVID-19 will probably have killed more than 2M, so more than each of H1N1, H3N2, H2N2, see this chart https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1233876986025480192 https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1233876986025480192 which I pulled from https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an... Compared to HIV, which is by far the deadliest outbreak in your list with 30 million killed, it would take a while for COVID-19 to kill as much. However some experts say the virus might become endemic, staying around the planet for the foreseeable future, never completely eradicated. If that's the case, then over time it is possible it could end up killing 30M. After all it is more severe than the seasonal flu, and the latter has killed tens of millions over the last century.
- zajd 7y ago
  > Bill Gates called COVID-19 a once-in-a-century pandemic Bill Gates, noted virologist and authority on pandemics The "Spanish" flu killed ~10-100m people, what does once-in-a-century pandemic even mean in the context of modern medicine existing for barely 100 years, if that.
deleted 7y ago
[deleted]
jariel 7y ago
"hard to time precisely, but everybody knows that it’s a thing that happens regularly. " ... " That’s the exact opposite of a black swan;" No - big things that happen every so often that you cannot time are exactly what Black Swans are. None of those pandemics you mention rose to the level of disrupting business globally, what we are seeing is unprecedented. 'Pandemics' do not disrupt the world regularly. 2008 crash, 9/11, 1998 Asia crash, Iraq War I, 1987 crash, Opec oil crisis - nobody saw them coming. 'Black Swans' happen every so often but we never know what form they are going to take. The big 'black swans' were, 2008 crisis, 9/11, Asia crash 1998, possibly Iraq war I, 1987 digital crash, Opec Oil crises, etc.

mc32 7y ago

By your definition it seems a meteor strike of consequence would not be a black swan event because we know they have happened and we know they will continue to happen. I guess to make it useful we have calibrate the meaning to actually mean something useful that we can understand.

intuitionist 7y ago
I count four pandemics in my list that would have occurred in the lifetime of many of Sequoia’s GPs. That’s a base rate many orders of magnitude higher than significant meteor strikes.
edmundsauto 7y ago
Black swans, by definition, are things that we could not have predicted. That where the power lies -- they change everything. Rare events like viral outbreaks are probably not in this category. That doesn't mean they aren't impactful or relevant, but OP is right - they're not a black swan, in the definition created by Taleb.

sweeneyrod 7y ago

COVID19 has probably already killed more people than Zika or SARS or MERS and seems very likely to kill more people than the recent Ebola outbreak (unless there is some reason to believe it's going to stop spreading very soon). Its mortality rate is 10x that of swine flu. HIV/AIDS very much was a black swan.

chipotle_coyote 7y ago
The mortality rate of “regular” flu is 0.1-0.2%; even the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3%, and historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high because proper testing regimes aren’t in place. In South Korea, where they’re far and away testing the most suspected cases (around 10K tests a day, ramping up to 20K), the rate is about 0.4%.
- sweeneyrod 7y ago
  Yes sorry I meant 10x.
- tristanj 7y ago
  Some nits: > the highest mortality rates reported for COVID-19 are around 2-3% The CFR reported in Wuhan is 4-5% and some reports from early February estimated it as high as 18% [0]. We're seeing a similar CFR reported in Iran. Naturally, the CFR is higher after the medical system collapses. > historically the initial mortality rates for epidemics start high That's not always true. Early estimates of the 2003 SARS epidemic placed the CFR around 2-3%, but a re-analysis of the data several years later placed it at 9%. On the other hand, early estimates of the 2009 Swine Flu pandemic placed it at 0.4% CFR [1] , however it fell to below 0.01% [2]. It's difficult to know the real CFR of an epidemic until after it's completed. > In South Korea ... the rate is about 0.4%. Currently, South Korea has 6,088 confirmed cases and 42 deaths [3], which is a 0.6% CFR. However, that CFR assumes 100% of the 5,958 remaining cases will survive. The CFR in Korea is biased as it includes many people in the initial stages of the illness. [0] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s... [1] https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.htm https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2009/05/090511151620.h... [2] http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researchers-estimate-relatively-low-h1n1-fatality-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2009/12/researche... [3] Currently reporting 6,088 confirmed cases, 42 deaths, and 88 recovered. https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/ https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus...

mrb 7y ago

A black swan is a rare event. It's appropriate for COVID-19, as its death toll is either already higher than some of the outbreaks you listed, or is expected to surpass them in the near future. Bill Gates called COVID-19 a once-in-a-century pandemic (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2003762) Death tolls: • less than 11k: Zika, Ebola, MERS, SARS • 575k for H1N1 (2009) • 1M for H3N2 (1968) • 2M for H2N2 (1957) • 32M for HIV By the end of March, COVID-19 will have killed more than the diseases in the first bullet point. Within a year, COVID-19 will probably have killed more than 2M, so more than each of H1N1, H3N2, H2N2, see this chart https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1233876986025480192 https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1233876986025480192 which I pulled from https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an... Compared to HIV, which is by far the deadliest outbreak in your list with 30 million killed, it would take a while for COVID-19 to kill as much. However some experts say the virus might become endemic, staying around the planet for the foreseeable future, never completely eradicated. If that's the case, then over time it is possible it could end up killing 30M. After all it is more severe than the seasonal flu, and the latter has killed tens of millions over the last century.

zajd 7y ago
> Bill Gates called COVID-19 a once-in-a-century pandemic Bill Gates, noted virologist and authority on pandemics The "Spanish" flu killed ~10-100m people, what does once-in-a-century pandemic even mean in the context of modern medicine existing for barely 100 years, if that.

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

jariel 7y ago

"hard to time precisely, but everybody knows that it’s a thing that happens regularly. " ... " That’s the exact opposite of a black swan;" No - big things that happen every so often that you cannot time are exactly what Black Swans are. None of those pandemics you mention rose to the level of disrupting business globally, what we are seeing is unprecedented. 'Pandemics' do not disrupt the world regularly. 2008 crash, 9/11, 1998 Asia crash, Iraq War I, 1987 crash, Opec oil crisis - nobody saw them coming. 'Black Swans' happen every so often but we never know what form they are going to take. The big 'black swans' were, 2008 crisis, 9/11, Asia crash 1998, possibly Iraq war I, 1987 digital crash, Opec Oil crises, etc.