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Why would anyone even remotely skilled in math consider a viral spread exponential rather than logistic or Weibull? The former stems from communication theory
by AstralStorm 7y ago
Why would anyone even remotely skilled in math consider a viral spread exponential rather than logistic or Weibull?
The former stems from communication theory and the observation that few people can be sick forever or more than once. There are also constant factor communication "costs" to the virus expressed as likelihoods of infection due to minimum effective viral load, countermeasures, severity and immunity.
Latter if fomites are a major factor in final spread. (overlapping point scatter gets you Raleigh - you have to be unlucky to be near the source)
Potentially a combination of both. They all look sigmoid.
The stronger the countermeasures, the lower the total maximum.