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>I'm not saying Bitcoin doesn't have speculative value, but you have to be already an experienced analyst and trader If you buy and hold for multiple years, on

>I'm not saying Bitcoin doesn't have speculative value, but you have to be already an experienced analyst and trader If you buy and hold for multiple years, on average you will make 350% a year, very similarly to how you would see a certain level of average annual returns from buying and holding on the conventional stock market. The growth is being fueled by the adoption of a new technology.

dmos62 7y ago
If you buy and hold during the last 2 years, how much would you make on average per year?
- chroem- 7y ago
  That's why they're average annual returns, and the idea is to hold for multiple years. The same could be said about people who bought stocks and real estate in 2007.
  - dmos62 7y ago
    If your solution to making a trade profitable is to hold it longer, then you don't have the right mentality for trading. What chances are of this (hypothetical, I presume) trade turning profitable? If you don't know, or if it's not much better than 50%, you're making a mistake. When actively trading, profitably is calculated a bit differently, but I presume we're talking about a one off trade.
    - chroem- 7y ago
      Most active traders don't beat the market (any market), as they shouldn't provided that the EMH is true. I'm proposing a strategy of long term investing.
ycombobreaker 7y ago
s/you will/you would have/ please. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
swiley 7y ago
That really doesn’t make a lot of sense. Bitcoin is well known and widely used at this point, even if it hasn’t reached its maximum audience it’s approaching that. Contrast the stock market who’s potential is capped by a combination of fossil fuels and the solar radiation flowing into the earth, which we’re no where near using efficiently, and you can see why they’re not at all in the same category.
- llcoolv 7y ago
  Bitcoin's maximum (and future) audience is 100% of world's GDP, so that governments can no longer steal value through inflation (FRB and QE). So far it isn't anywhere near that level yet.
  - Nursie 7y ago
    Controlled inflation and QE are good things, that help keep the economy ticking. Where you see governments 'stealing value', the rest of us see sensible monetary policy. God save us from idiots who would hand said policy to a handful of software engineers and a self-interested mining cartel.
    - llcoolv 7y ago
      1. You have no grasp of how bitcoin works - the whole idea is that there is a finite number that cannot be manipulated. 2. No matter how you try to justify it - it is still theft. It is not really surprising that such a weak and crooked "man" as you are has nothing but flawed arguments and ad hominem attacks. 3. Not to mention that your justification is only supported by the Keynsean half of economists which is known not to produce long-term functioning results. Read something by Hayek and von Mieses and if you are clever enough to understand it, you might stop defending and justifying a bunch of useless corrupted crooks. Yours dear, Stupid idiot, who considers theft a bad thing P.S. Your justification of theft reminds me of how convinced those tribal people (not saying muslims in general as it is mostly tribal people who partake, some of whom are not muslim) are that stoning women who commit adultery is a good thing.
    - 7y ago
Nursie 7y ago
> The growth is being fueled by the adoption of a new technology. What adoption? Adoption appears to have stalled and fallen back, with multiple companies having announced that attempting to accept bitcoin had been a waste of time or even a net negative.
dkersten 7y ago
Depends on when you bought. If you bought at 20k, you'd be down quite a bit right now.

dmos62 7y ago

If you buy and hold during the last 2 years, how much would you make on average per year?

chroem- 7y ago
That's why they're average annual returns, and the idea is to hold for multiple years. The same could be said about people who bought stocks and real estate in 2007.
- dmos62 7y ago
  If your solution to making a trade profitable is to hold it longer, then you don't have the right mentality for trading. What chances are of this (hypothetical, I presume) trade turning profitable? If you don't know, or if it's not much better than 50%, you're making a mistake. When actively trading, profitably is calculated a bit differently, but I presume we're talking about a one off trade.
  - chroem- 7y ago
    Most active traders don't beat the market (any market), as they shouldn't provided that the EMH is true. I'm proposing a strategy of long term investing.

ycombobreaker 7y ago

s/you will/you would have/ please. Past performance does not guarantee future performance.

swiley 7y ago

That really doesn’t make a lot of sense. Bitcoin is well known and widely used at this point, even if it hasn’t reached its maximum audience it’s approaching that. Contrast the stock market who’s potential is capped by a combination of fossil fuels and the solar radiation flowing into the earth, which we’re no where near using efficiently, and you can see why they’re not at all in the same category.

llcoolv 7y ago
Bitcoin's maximum (and future) audience is 100% of world's GDP, so that governments can no longer steal value through inflation (FRB and QE). So far it isn't anywhere near that level yet.
- Nursie 7y ago
  Controlled inflation and QE are good things, that help keep the economy ticking. Where you see governments 'stealing value', the rest of us see sensible monetary policy. God save us from idiots who would hand said policy to a handful of software engineers and a self-interested mining cartel.
  - llcoolv 7y ago
    1. You have no grasp of how bitcoin works - the whole idea is that there is a finite number that cannot be manipulated. 2. No matter how you try to justify it - it is still theft. It is not really surprising that such a weak and crooked "man" as you are has nothing but flawed arguments and ad hominem attacks. 3. Not to mention that your justification is only supported by the Keynsean half of economists which is known not to produce long-term functioning results. Read something by Hayek and von Mieses and if you are clever enough to understand it, you might stop defending and justifying a bunch of useless corrupted crooks. Yours dear, Stupid idiot, who considers theft a bad thing P.S. Your justification of theft reminds me of how convinced those tribal people (not saying muslims in general as it is mostly tribal people who partake, some of whom are not muslim) are that stoning women who commit adultery is a good thing.
  - 7y ago

Nursie 7y ago

> The growth is being fueled by the adoption of a new technology. What adoption? Adoption appears to have stalled and fallen back, with multiple companies having announced that attempting to accept bitcoin had been a waste of time or even a net negative.

dkersten 7y ago

Depends on when you bought. If you bought at 20k, you'd be down quite a bit right now.