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No, I don't think that's accurate. In the scenario you pose, sticking and switching have an equal reward, so both are valid solutions.
by aardshark 7y ago
No, I don't think that's accurate. In the scenario you pose, sticking and switching have an equal reward, so both are valid solutions.
- retsibsi 7y ago> sticking and switching have an equal reward Right, and this is the intuitive solution. Nobody argues that switching reduces your chance of success; the split is over whether it increases it to 2/3 or leaves it at 1/3. (The problem statement ends with 'Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?' The right answer under the intended assumption about the host is 'yes', but the intuitive answer is 'no, it makes no difference'.)
- retsibsi 7y agoSorry, I shouldn't have said 'increases it to 2/3 or leaves it at 1/3'. If he picks randomly and reveals a goat, the probability that your original choice of door is a winner is now 1/2, as is the probability that the remaining door is a winner.