6 ms·
You're correct. But it never says what the base likelihood of a severe even is. 30% higher than a base of 0.01%? 30% higher than a base of 10% probability? Th
by huffmsa 7y ago
You're correct. But it never says what the base likelihood of a severe even is.
30% higher than a base of 0.01%? 30% higher than a base of 10% probability?
That makes a difference.
Especially if other factors have much higher contributory rates. Like "letting underbrush accumulate increases chances of severe events by 400% YoY".
And it's not a postmortem if you only discuss a single factor. It's an opinion/position piece.
- stonith 7y ago>letting underbrush accumulate increases chances of severe events by 400% YoY It's interesting you use this example because this has been covered by the RFS - the period during which hazard reduction burns can be safely done to clear the underbrush is shrinking because the fire season is longer and winter is shorter. They can only do those burns when it's both safe and not raining, so a change in climate can indirectly impact the severity.