5 ms·

as a layman, I'm gonna buy all I can.

by magma17 7y ago

dmos62 7y ago
https://www.google.com/search?q=gambling+help https://www.google.com/search?q=gambling+help
- chroem- 7y ago
  Even taking into account the bear market of the last two years, bitcoin still has an average annual return of 350%. To say that all cryptocurrency equates to gambling is just foolish.
  - kaiabwpdjqn 7y ago
    Even taking into account the average losses at the casino, I won an average return of 350% playing roulette. To say that all gambling equates to gambling is just foolish. It ain’t gambling if you win
    - nullandvoid 7y ago
      Jokes aside it's pretty silly comparing a 10 year market to a 50/50 game of luck Sure anyone can lose money and it's a gamble, but it's an educated one, roulette is not
      - ahnick 7y ago
        Unless you know the wheel bias ;-) https://www.gamblingsites.net/blog/the-pelayos-the-family-that-broke-vegas-and-spain-in-roulette/ https://www.gamblingsites.net/blog/the-pelayos-the-family-th...
      - kaiabwpdjqn 7y ago
        I would argue “All on red” with known risks and rewards is more educated than a blind investment into a technology that you don’t even understand, which describes most speculative crypto investments by “laymen” as the op said
    - dmos62 7y ago
      Whether something is gambling depends on what odds you're taking. If your odds are consistently better than 50%, then it's not gambling. Whether something is gambling describes your decisions, not their outcomes. An outcome never affects the quality of the decision: if you win a 1%-odds-to-win bet, the decision to take it was irregardless bad.
      - kaiabwpdjqn 7y ago
        This is... false. For a number of reasons. Something can be economically rational at scale and still a gamble, because you do not have infinite funds. More importantly, past results are not indicative of future results in valuations. Thinking that a thing must increase in value because it increased in value previously is perhaps the dumbest fallacy in in finance possible. Option 1: I offer you 99,999/100,000 chance to lose everything you have, And a 1/100,000 chance to get 100,001 times more. Expected value is net positive. And yet, you’d be pretty dumb to do it. Gambling. Option 2: I offer you 9/10 chance to get 1.01x more. 1/10 chance to get 0x. Expected loss. Better than 50% odds of gain. Gambling. Option 3: Coin toss. Triple your lifespan on heads. Die on tails. Definitely gambling.
        dmos62 7y ago
        I'm not sure I follow, but you're probably talking about a scenario where the risk/reward ratio is not 1:1. Sure, it's more complicated then. If you take a 10% chance bet 10 times and it has a risk of -1 and reward of +10, on average you'll get (-1 * 9) + (+10 * 1) = 1.
        kaiabwpdjqn 7y ago
        > bet 10 times The point in option 1 and 3 is to illustrate that betting 10 times isn’t an option in many systems. You can’t say you should always do something because the risk reward is favorable. That’s still gambling, and sometimes a stupid decision. The average outcome of a gamble is not the likely outcome of taking it. And even ignoring that, it’s still a gamble unless you can confidently run it at sufficient scale to hit the theoretical distribution.
  - dmos62 7y ago
    I've seen too many sad go-all-in stories to not mention the dangers of gambling. > average annual return of 350% That's misleading. The price is currently at the ~35-40% retrace from the high of 20k. What happened so far (for example the rally to 20k) is not an indicator that Bitcoin's value will grow or even be sustained. I'm not saying Bitcoin doesn't have speculative value, but you have to be already an experienced analyst and trader (in case of day trading) to have a chance at profiting from it. "If it were easy everyone would be doing it" proverb is true. Crypto is much harder than forex for example. Again, unless you really know what you're doing, trading will hardly be more profitable than going to the casino.
    - chroem- 7y ago
      >I'm not saying Bitcoin doesn't have speculative value, but you have to be already an experienced analyst and trader If you buy and hold for multiple years, on average you will make 350% a year, very similarly to how you would see a certain level of average annual returns from buying and holding on the conventional stock market. The growth is being fueled by the adoption of a new technology.
      - dmos62 7y ago
        If you buy and hold during the last 2 years, how much would you make on average per year?
        chroem- 7y ago
        That's why they're average annual returns, and the idea is to hold for multiple years. The same could be said about people who bought stocks and real estate in 2007.
        dmos62 7y ago
        If your solution to making a trade profitable is to hold it longer, then you don't have the right mentality for trading. What chances are of this (hypothetical, I presume) trade turning profitable? If you don't know, or if it's not much better than 50%, you're making a mistake. When actively trading, profitably is calculated a bit differently, but I presume we're talking about a one off trade.
  - aguyfromnb 7y ago
    >To say that all cryptocurrency equates to gambling is just foolish. Speculating on a volatile asset, as an admitted layman, based on non-news is gambling, period. >bitcoin still has an average annual return of 350% Utterly irrelevant to all of the buyers in at $15,000+.
  - neysofu 7y ago
    Golden rule of investing: past performance is not an indicator of future success.

as a layman, I'm gonna buy all I can.

dmos62 7y ago

https://www.google.com/search?q=gambling+help https://www.google.com/search?q=gambling+help

chroem- 7y ago
Even taking into account the bear market of the last two years, bitcoin still has an average annual return of 350%. To say that all cryptocurrency equates to gambling is just foolish.
- kaiabwpdjqn 7y ago
  Even taking into account the average losses at the casino, I won an average return of 350% playing roulette. To say that all gambling equates to gambling is just foolish. It ain’t gambling if you win
  - nullandvoid 7y ago
    Jokes aside it's pretty silly comparing a 10 year market to a 50/50 game of luck Sure anyone can lose money and it's a gamble, but it's an educated one, roulette is not
    - ahnick 7y ago
      Unless you know the wheel bias ;-) https://www.gamblingsites.net/blog/the-pelayos-the-family-that-broke-vegas-and-spain-in-roulette/ https://www.gamblingsites.net/blog/the-pelayos-the-family-th...
    - kaiabwpdjqn 7y ago
      I would argue “All on red” with known risks and rewards is more educated than a blind investment into a technology that you don’t even understand, which describes most speculative crypto investments by “laymen” as the op said
  - dmos62 7y ago
    Whether something is gambling depends on what odds you're taking. If your odds are consistently better than 50%, then it's not gambling. Whether something is gambling describes your decisions, not their outcomes. An outcome never affects the quality of the decision: if you win a 1%-odds-to-win bet, the decision to take it was irregardless bad.
    - kaiabwpdjqn 7y ago
      This is... false. For a number of reasons. Something can be economically rational at scale and still a gamble, because you do not have infinite funds. More importantly, past results are not indicative of future results in valuations. Thinking that a thing must increase in value because it increased in value previously is perhaps the dumbest fallacy in in finance possible. Option 1: I offer you 99,999/100,000 chance to lose everything you have, And a 1/100,000 chance to get 100,001 times more. Expected value is net positive. And yet, you’d be pretty dumb to do it. Gambling. Option 2: I offer you 9/10 chance to get 1.01x more. 1/10 chance to get 0x. Expected loss. Better than 50% odds of gain. Gambling. Option 3: Coin toss. Triple your lifespan on heads. Die on tails. Definitely gambling.
      - dmos62 7y ago
        I'm not sure I follow, but you're probably talking about a scenario where the risk/reward ratio is not 1:1. Sure, it's more complicated then. If you take a 10% chance bet 10 times and it has a risk of -1 and reward of +10, on average you'll get (-1 * 9) + (+10 * 1) = 1.
        kaiabwpdjqn 7y ago
        > bet 10 times The point in option 1 and 3 is to illustrate that betting 10 times isn’t an option in many systems. You can’t say you should always do something because the risk reward is favorable. That’s still gambling, and sometimes a stupid decision. The average outcome of a gamble is not the likely outcome of taking it. And even ignoring that, it’s still a gamble unless you can confidently run it at sufficient scale to hit the theoretical distribution.
- dmos62 7y ago
  I've seen too many sad go-all-in stories to not mention the dangers of gambling. > average annual return of 350% That's misleading. The price is currently at the ~35-40% retrace from the high of 20k. What happened so far (for example the rally to 20k) is not an indicator that Bitcoin's value will grow or even be sustained. I'm not saying Bitcoin doesn't have speculative value, but you have to be already an experienced analyst and trader (in case of day trading) to have a chance at profiting from it. "If it were easy everyone would be doing it" proverb is true. Crypto is much harder than forex for example. Again, unless you really know what you're doing, trading will hardly be more profitable than going to the casino.
  - chroem- 7y ago
    >I'm not saying Bitcoin doesn't have speculative value, but you have to be already an experienced analyst and trader If you buy and hold for multiple years, on average you will make 350% a year, very similarly to how you would see a certain level of average annual returns from buying and holding on the conventional stock market. The growth is being fueled by the adoption of a new technology.
    - dmos62 7y ago
      If you buy and hold during the last 2 years, how much would you make on average per year?
      - chroem- 7y ago
        That's why they're average annual returns, and the idea is to hold for multiple years. The same could be said about people who bought stocks and real estate in 2007.
        dmos62 7y ago
        If your solution to making a trade profitable is to hold it longer, then you don't have the right mentality for trading. What chances are of this (hypothetical, I presume) trade turning profitable? If you don't know, or if it's not much better than 50%, you're making a mistake. When actively trading, profitably is calculated a bit differently, but I presume we're talking about a one off trade.
- aguyfromnb 7y ago
  >To say that all cryptocurrency equates to gambling is just foolish. Speculating on a volatile asset, as an admitted layman, based on non-news is gambling, period. >bitcoin still has an average annual return of 350% Utterly irrelevant to all of the buyers in at $15,000+.
- neysofu 7y ago
  Golden rule of investing: past performance is not an indicator of future success.