> This sounds like pure speculation and is probably not a reasonable thing to assume. It is speculation, but not pure speculation - there is some data to back

> This sounds like pure speculation and is probably not a reasonable thing to assume. It is speculation, but not pure speculation - there is some data to back it up. Trevor Bedford [0] is a researcher at Fred Hutch in Seattle and a professor at UW, focusing on genomic sequencing of viruses. He estimated two days ago [1] that the number of cases was in the hundreds, with a large degree of uncertainty: > This approach leads to a similar estimate of the number of current infections at 330 with a 90% uncertainty interval of between 20 and 1500 infections. This is solely an estimate of the infections here in the Seattle area, based on gene sequencing. 0: https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/ https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/ 1: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589820946534401 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589820946534401