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People can't see who's contagious in the early stages, so they're gambling with their lives by not taking proactive precautions before it's a widespread problem

People can't see who's contagious in the early stages, so they're gambling with their lives by not taking proactive precautions before it's a widespread problem. COVID-19/SARS-cov-2 is something to take seriously for several reasons: - To reiterate an important point: "Healthy" infected people go around unwittingly spreading it for several days to a week, so you have no idea who's really sick. And you have no idea how many people in public actually have it at any one time. It's another reason this pathogen is so successful. - It's a terrible flu for most. - It can quickly turn life-threatening. A number of bodies were discovered in Wuhan of people trying to walk or drive themselves to the hospital, but they died before reaching it. - FIXED: If hospitalization is needed, the average CFR is 16% (Russian roulette odds) and 49% for critical condition. - There is no treatment. It's going to be a full pandemic in 7-21 days (depending on the area), and last from 19-35 days. For example, someone already died from it within 40 mi / 64 km of where my mom lives in a rural/suburban area. You have to assume the number of infected is 10-30x the number of identified cases because the CDC has strict PUI criteria that are turning away patients. (Oh, and it costs $2000±1000 if you take the test and test negative.)

alasdair_ 7y ago
> If hospitalization is needed, the average fatality rate (critical CFR) is 49% This is only true for people who are listed in “critical” condition. The fatality rate for most hospitalized people is much lower.
Barrin92 7y ago
>To reiterate an important point: "Healthy" infected people go around unwittingly spreading it for several days to a week, so you have no idea who's really sick. According to the newest WHO report (also posted on the frontpage of HN) this doesn't appear to be the case. There are apparently few asymptomatic cases and the disease mainly is spread by people who are symptomatic. >You have to assume the number of infected is 10-30x the number This sounds like pure speculation and is probably not a reasonable thing to assume.
- evil-olive 7y ago
  > This sounds like pure speculation and is probably not a reasonable thing to assume. It is speculation, but not pure speculation - there is some data to back it up. Trevor Bedford [0] is a researcher at Fred Hutch in Seattle and a professor at UW, focusing on genomic sequencing of viruses. He estimated two days ago [1] that the number of cases was in the hundreds, with a large degree of uncertainty: > This approach leads to a similar estimate of the number of current infections at 330 with a 90% uncertainty interval of between 20 and 1500 infections. This is solely an estimate of the infections here in the Seattle area, based on gene sequencing. 0: https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/ https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/ 1: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589820946534401 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589820946534401
- troydavis 7y ago
  In Seattle, the best current estimate (https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/ https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/) is 570 infections as of March 2: > Knowing that transmission was initiated on Jan 15 allows us to estimate the total number of infections that exist in this cluster today. Our preliminary analysis puts this at 570 with an 90% uncertainty interval of between 80 and 1500 infections.
  - pmiller2 7y ago
    That confidence interval is far too wide to contain any useful information.
    - evil-olive 7y ago
      As of Monday there were 18 confirmed cases in WA [0]. So even the lower bound of that confidence interval supports the claim that the number of actual cases is significantly higher than the number of confirmed cases (though "only" 4-5 times higher, rather than 10-30 times). 0: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/02/coronavirus-live-updates/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/02/coronavirus-...

alasdair_ 7y ago

> If hospitalization is needed, the average fatality rate (critical CFR) is 49% This is only true for people who are listed in “critical” condition. The fatality rate for most hospitalized people is much lower.

Barrin92 7y ago

>To reiterate an important point: "Healthy" infected people go around unwittingly spreading it for several days to a week, so you have no idea who's really sick. According to the newest WHO report (also posted on the frontpage of HN) this doesn't appear to be the case. There are apparently few asymptomatic cases and the disease mainly is spread by people who are symptomatic. >You have to assume the number of infected is 10-30x the number This sounds like pure speculation and is probably not a reasonable thing to assume.

evil-olive 7y ago
> This sounds like pure speculation and is probably not a reasonable thing to assume. It is speculation, but not pure speculation - there is some data to back it up. Trevor Bedford [0] is a researcher at Fred Hutch in Seattle and a professor at UW, focusing on genomic sequencing of viruses. He estimated two days ago [1] that the number of cases was in the hundreds, with a large degree of uncertainty: > This approach leads to a similar estimate of the number of current infections at 330 with a 90% uncertainty interval of between 20 and 1500 infections. This is solely an estimate of the infections here in the Seattle area, based on gene sequencing. 0: https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/ https://bedford.io/team/trevor-bedford/ 1: https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589820946534401 https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1234589820946534401
troydavis 7y ago
In Seattle, the best current estimate (https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/ https://bedford.io/blog/ncov-cryptic-transmission/) is 570 infections as of March 2: > Knowing that transmission was initiated on Jan 15 allows us to estimate the total number of infections that exist in this cluster today. Our preliminary analysis puts this at 570 with an 90% uncertainty interval of between 80 and 1500 infections.
- pmiller2 7y ago
  That confidence interval is far too wide to contain any useful information.
  - evil-olive 7y ago
    As of Monday there were 18 confirmed cases in WA [0]. So even the lower bound of that confidence interval supports the claim that the number of actual cases is significantly higher than the number of confirmed cases (though "only" 4-5 times higher, rather than 10-30 times). 0: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/02/coronavirus-live-updates/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/03/02/coronavirus-...