3 ms·
"First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far." Ok let's look at the data he summarizes in the next sentences:
by mrb 7y ago
"First, COVID-19 does not transmit as efficiently as influenza, from the data we have so far."
Ok let's look at the data he summarizes in the next sentences:
"With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19. Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days."
That's 1% of reported cases. But evidence shows there are many more unreported cases, and these cases tend to be asymptomatic, or very mild. Peer-reviewed research has estimated there are 11x to 38x more cases than detected:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6...
https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/419 https://www.mdpi.com/2077-0383/9/2/419
Another study estimates there are 19x to 26x more cases than detected: https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-2019-nCoV-severity-10-02-2020.pdf https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/s...
These 3 studies are all the studies I know of that try to estimate the rate of underascertainment. I did not cherry-pick these to make a point.
Anyway, this suggests the vast majority of cases might be, in fact, just like influenza: asymptomatic or very mild. And there are no reason to believe they are not major drivers of transmission.
"Some countries are looking for cases of COVID-19 using surveillance systems for influenza and other respiratory diseases. Countries such as China, Ghana, Singapore and elsewhere have found very few cases of COVID-19 among such samples – or no cases at all."
China: the only reason they find so few new cases in March (only 100-200 new cases per day) is not because COVID-19 is less contagious than the flu, but because they implemented extreme response measures including the complete shutdown and isolation of whole cities, cancellation of public events, closing all schools nationwide, prohibition of attendance at work, etc. So of course COVID-19 is spreading slower than the influenza. If China implemented these measures during influenza season, they would likely drastically reduce the number of influenza cases.
Singapore: COVID-19 has, so far, been contained (less than 110 cases country-wide) with strict isolation procedures for patients. I am not sure this is evidence that COVID-19 is less contagious than influenza.
Ghana: it is not even a country rated "high risk" by https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30464-5/fulltext https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6... but just "moderate risk". And there are no known cases of COVID-19. So in my opinion, it is insufficient evidence to suggest COVID-19 is less contagious than the flu.
"The only way to be sure is by looking for COVID-19 antibodies in large numbers of people, and several countries are now doing those studies. This will give us further insight into the extent of infection in populations over time."
That's the only statement from the WHO Director-General that makes sense: we need more evidence to be sure we can correctly quantify COVID-19's contagiousness.