5 ms·
There are a lot of things that make calculating a straightforward percentage hard: - not all cases detected - deaths are a laggy indicator - recoveries are a
by knzhou 7y ago
There are a lot of things that make calculating a straightforward percentage hard:
- not all cases detected
- deaths are a laggy indicator
- recoveries are an extremely laggy indicator
- impact of demographics, healthcare quality
- sizes of effects of all 4 previous things depends on the country and the time
This has led to internet commentators coming up with wild numbers, ranging from 0.1% to 20%. At the risk of sounding like a spoilsport, I suggest we all defer to the expert numbers (2-3%), because the experts are perfectly aware of all 5 effects I mentioned, and more, and have already tried their best to correct for them, using better data than we have.
- droithomme 7y ago> defer to the expert numbers (2-3%) Latest expert estimate of global mortality rate, as published by WHO, is 3.4% as reported here: https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/WHO-global-mortality-rate-death-World-Health-Org-15104402.php https://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/WHO-global-mortality-... And also as reported in OP's link. https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-s-opening-remarks-at-the-media-briefing-on-covid-19---3-march-2020 https://www.who.int/dg/speeches/detail/who-director-general-... > "Globally, about 3.4% of reported COVID-19 cases have died."