5 ms·
They've not been saying that for months, that's completely absurd. The disease started spreading in November at the earliest. Just a month ago very little was k
by himinlomax 7y ago
They've not been saying that for months, that's completely absurd. The disease started spreading in November at the earliest. Just a month ago very little was known about its transmission rate and lethality; estimates from reputable sources ranged from 1 to 20%.
- Trasmatta 7y ago> estimates from reputable sources ranged from 1 to 20%. What reputable sources have said anything close to 20%?
- himinlomax 7y agoThat was the high end of the early estimates, though they all said it was highly unlikely.
- chaostheory 7y agoThe highest estimated r0 in a non-peer reviewed paper that I've seen is 6.6. himinlomax may be referring to individual cases like the one involving a cult in South Korea where one lady was confirmed to have infected approximately 70 people
- tylerhou 7y agohiminlomax was claiming that reputable sources reported a 20% lethality rate, which is absurd (about as high as SARS).
- himinlomax 7y agoI didn't talk about reports, I said "estimates." And yes, early estimates included the perfectly reasonable though eventually disproven hypothesis that it could turn out to be as deadly as MERS (SARS was not that deadly).