4 ms·

You're missing the # for "Unreported". That may be huge. For example, in China, are there another 100,000 people who contracted it, and recovered, without ever

You're missing the # for "Unreported". That may be huge. For example, in China, are there another 100,000 people who contracted it, and recovered, without ever knowing they had it? You're looking at this data through the fog of war (as a sibling comment mentions).

flukus 7y ago
TFA addresses this: > Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days. They came up with this number by testing people who didn't have symptoms but were in some contact with someone who had the virus. The big question is how much the lockdown affected this, but there doesn't appear to be large swaths of asymptomatic people.
- function_seven 7y ago
  Thanks. I misinterpreted that to put emphasis on the "reported" part. Your explanation of how they arrived at it would definitely reduce the possible size of unsurveyed carriers. The other replies to parent do a much better job explaining how "just looking at the data" is misleading.
- roywiggins 7y ago
  They tested everyone on the Diamond Princess and seemed to find a lot of asymptomatic cases. I don't know how to reconcile this, but there it is. The mortality rate was worse than seasonal flu but not 3%, either. https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-r...
  - microcolonel 7y ago
    What do you mean by "was"? Because as far as I'm aware, 690 of the 706 confirmed diamond princess cases have not concluded (neither dead nor recovered).
  - flukus 7y ago
    > I don't know how to reconcile this Multiple strains might explain it along with other conflicting information and differing results between countries: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientis... As you said, we're still looking at it through the fog of war.
    - roywiggins 7y ago
      Mutation would do it, so would demographic differences, level of treatment, who knows. Data out of South Korea indicate a similar CFR as the cruise ship. https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1235211584600932352 https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/12352115846...

flukus 7y ago

TFA addresses this: > Evidence from China is that only 1% of reported cases do not have symptoms, and most of those cases develop symptoms within 2 days. They came up with this number by testing people who didn't have symptoms but were in some contact with someone who had the virus. The big question is how much the lockdown affected this, but there doesn't appear to be large swaths of asymptomatic people.

function_seven 7y ago
Thanks. I misinterpreted that to put emphasis on the "reported" part. Your explanation of how they arrived at it would definitely reduce the possible size of unsurveyed carriers. The other replies to parent do a much better job explaining how "just looking at the data" is misleading.
roywiggins 7y ago
They tested everyone on the Diamond Princess and seemed to find a lot of asymptomatic cases. I don't know how to reconcile this, but there it is. The mortality rate was worse than seasonal flu but not 3%, either. https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-r...
- microcolonel 7y ago
  What do you mean by "was"? Because as far as I'm aware, 690 of the 706 confirmed diamond princess cases have not concluded (neither dead nor recovered).
- flukus 7y ago
  > I don't know how to reconcile this Multiple strains might explain it along with other conflicting information and differing results between countries: https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-types-covid-19.html https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientis... As you said, we're still looking at it through the fog of war.
  - roywiggins 7y ago
    Mutation would do it, so would demographic differences, level of treatment, who knows. Data out of South Korea indicate a similar CFR as the cruise ship. https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1235211584600932352 https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/12352115846...