4 ms·

"To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness t

by jcadam 7y ago

"To summarize, COVID-19 spreads less efficiently than flu, transmission does not appear to be driven by people who are not sick, it causes more severe illness than flu, there are not yet any vaccines or therapeutics, and it can be contained – which is why we must do everything we can to contain it. That’s why WHO recommends a comprehensive approach." Ah, so there aren't hordes of asymptomatic carriers out there, which is both good and bad (the death rate really is high)

roywiggins 7y ago
The confusing thing is that the Diamond Princess data points in the other direction: more asymptomatic cases, and a significantly lower case fatality rate, than the WHO numbers. https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-r... The WHO says they haven't found many asymptomatic cases (despite looking), but apparently lots of the cruise ship cases were. The WHO estimates a mortality rate over 3%, but much less 3% of the Diamond Princess infected died. I don't know how to reconcile these other than to suppose the virus has mutated (possible) or the asymptomatic cases were false positives (maybe?) or some demographic factor on the cruise ship was different.
- makomk 7y ago
  The WHO seemed to be relying on Chinese flu surveillance data, which is basically useless - even the figures it produces for flu infections are implausible and probably wrong. Between this and their other comments it might be best to treat anything the WHO says as just Chinese propaganda at this point.
- servercobra 7y ago
  The Diamond Princess is a pretty small sample size to be extrapolating the mortality rate.
  - roywiggins 7y ago
    Statistics out of South Korea look similar: https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1235211584600932352 https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/12352115846...
- ridgeguy 7y ago
  Perhaps a cruise ship demographic factor was fewer pre-existing health issues than we'd see in a randomly chosen age cohort of similar size? Co-morbidity of other diseases and COVID-19 seems to correlate with higher case mortality rates. This would predict higher case mortality in assisted living homes, which has been found in the Washington state cluster.
- ianburrell 7y ago
  One way to reconcile the numbers is that the asymptomatic cases are less infectious. It seems like asymptomatic transmission is rare. This does make sense since this virus is transmitted by droplets from coughing and sneezing and mild cases cough and sneeze less.

by jcadam 7y ago

roywiggins 7y ago

The confusing thing is that the Diamond Princess data points in the other direction: more asymptomatic cases, and a significantly lower case fatality rate, than the WHO numbers. https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-rate-lower-than-we-think.html https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/coronavirus-mortality-r... The WHO says they haven't found many asymptomatic cases (despite looking), but apparently lots of the cruise ship cases were. The WHO estimates a mortality rate over 3%, but much less 3% of the Diamond Princess infected died. I don't know how to reconcile these other than to suppose the virus has mutated (possible) or the asymptomatic cases were false positives (maybe?) or some demographic factor on the cruise ship was different.

makomk 7y ago
The WHO seemed to be relying on Chinese flu surveillance data, which is basically useless - even the figures it produces for flu infections are implausible and probably wrong. Between this and their other comments it might be best to treat anything the WHO says as just Chinese propaganda at this point.
servercobra 7y ago
The Diamond Princess is a pretty small sample size to be extrapolating the mortality rate.
- roywiggins 7y ago
  Statistics out of South Korea look similar: https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/1235211584600932352 https://mobile.twitter.com/HelenBranswell/status/12352115846...
ridgeguy 7y ago
Perhaps a cruise ship demographic factor was fewer pre-existing health issues than we'd see in a randomly chosen age cohort of similar size? Co-morbidity of other diseases and COVID-19 seems to correlate with higher case mortality rates. This would predict higher case mortality in assisted living homes, which has been found in the Washington state cluster.
ianburrell 7y ago
One way to reconcile the numbers is that the asymptomatic cases are less infectious. It seems like asymptomatic transmission is rare. This does make sense since this virus is transmitted by droplets from coughing and sneezing and mild cases cough and sneeze less.