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I see. That seems useless then isn't it? I mean its fine if you're looking at the longer term picture. But its completely useless for informing how to handle a
by erentz 7y ago
I see. That seems useless then isn't it?
I mean its fine if you're looking at the longer term picture. But its completely useless for informing how to handle an emerging situation. E.g. if China's decision making was informed by base rater thinking, which amounts here to "eventually things will return to normal" then they would not have taken the measures they took which are leading to that.
- tuna-piano 7y agoI'm just guessing too on what base rater is, but if I'm correct on what a base rater is, then the thinking has use for how normal citizens should prepare (maybe don't sell all your investments to buy rice and beans and N95 masks) rather than what those fighting the virus should do. If my understanding is correct, the base raters don't say that nothing extreme ever happens, they only say that things usually turn out close to how they have been. I suspect that is true.