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Not at all. If you know the context of superforcasters (See Good Judgement Open) they are the only ones who are consistently good at making forecasts. Even mo
by Enginerrrd 7y ago
Not at all. If you know the context of superforcasters (See Good Judgement Open) they are the only ones who are consistently good at making forecasts. Even most experts fair no better than chance. And they rely on detailed assessments with a combination of different sources and lots of analytical work.
- whatshisface 7y agoBut what's the base rate here, the base rate of years that have pandemics, or the base rate of exp(t) functions that go up really fast?