11 ms·
Pointless article. Posits people fall into two camps, the smart people who understand exponentials, and idiots who don't. Guess where the people in Washington
by lubesGordi 7y ago
Pointless article. Posits people fall into two camps, the smart people who understand exponentials, and idiots who don't. Guess where the people in Washington, D.C. fall.
- Enginerrrd 7y agoNot at all. If you know the context of superforcasters (See Good Judgement Open) they are the only ones who are consistently good at making forecasts. Even most experts fair no better than chance. And they rely on detailed assessments with a combination of different sources and lots of analytical work.
- whatshisface 7y agoBut what's the base rate here, the base rate of years that have pandemics, or the base rate of exp(t) functions that go up really fast?
- Barrin92 7y agoIf you have read the article it actually mentions explicitly that the 'base line' mindset turns out to be more often correct than expert opinion. Also I think the term 'growth rate' people is charitable. 'singularity people' might be more accurate because many people in that camp don't really seem to understand that most exponential curves are actually s-curves.
- tuna-piano 7y agoRight... Only an idiot would bet against the fact that weeks ago, when China had tens of thousands of cases and exponential case growth, that they would now have many millions right? But yet the idiot would have been right. This wasn't a natural flatlining, of course, but it shows that it can be done with this virus (at least temporarily).
- whatshisface 7y agoOf course, the policymakers can't set their policy based on a forecast that assumes that the rate will decrease due to policy.