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The 40-70% number is from a Harvard Professor of Epidemiology https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-person-with-coronavirus-infect-11581676200
by fooey 7y ago
The 40-70% number is from a Harvard Professor of Epidemiology
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-person-with-coronavirus-infect-11581676200?mod=rsswn https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-perso...
> “I think it is likely we’ll see a global pandemic,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can’t give a good number.”
- Proziam 7y ago"If", then he goes on to give a huge range, and then goes on to say that he can't give even an estimate of what percentage would be symptomatic. Then, he goes on to give an entirely different range on Twitter, including another statement that he should have said "without effective controls" - https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464?s=20 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464?s=2... So, basically, you proved my point that everyone is so damn eager to talk about this that they'll make claims without sufficient evidence and scare people into distress.
- el_benhameen 7y agoHe has since revised his estimate down to 20-60%. Which is still a lot, of course, but I think reflects the uncertainty here. He's also been very clear about mitigating factors and the uncertainty on his twitter account. https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464