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Given there's no herd immunity, and the virulance of the strain, estimates are 40-70% of the population will contract the virus within a year 0.2% of 40% of th

by fooey 7y ago

Given there's no herd immunity, and the virulance of the strain, estimates are 40-70% of the population will contract the virus within a year 0.2% of 40% of the US Population is 260,000 deaths within a year[1] "it's just the flu" greatly underappreciates just how deadly influenza actually is If the mortality rate is more in the 2%+ range, we're looking at millions of deaths in the US alone. [1] https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0.2%25+of+40%25+of+US+Population https://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=0.2%25+of+40%25+of+US+...

Proziam 7y ago
I've seen very different estimates. I'm gonna go off on a limb and say that there's probably more misinformation out there than real information. People should remain calm, take [0]reasonable precautions, and make decisions based on the latest information from credible sources such as the [1]CDC - rather than the media. [0]https://twitter.com/eugenegu/status/1235247642814214145 https://twitter.com/eugenegu/status/1235247642814214145 [1]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/related-stigma.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/related-stig...
- fooey 7y ago
  The 40-70% number is from a Harvard Professor of Epidemiology https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-person-with-coronavirus-infect-11581676200?mod=rsswn https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-perso... > “I think it is likely we’ll see a global pandemic,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can’t give a good number.”
  - Proziam 7y ago
    "If", then he goes on to give a huge range, and then goes on to say that he can't give even an estimate of what percentage would be symptomatic. Then, he goes on to give an entirely different range on Twitter, including another statement that he should have said "without effective controls" - https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464?s=20 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464?s=2... So, basically, you proved my point that everyone is so damn eager to talk about this that they'll make claims without sufficient evidence and scare people into distress.
  - el_benhameen 7y ago
    He has since revised his estimate down to 20-60%. Which is still a lot, of course, but I think reflects the uncertainty here. He's also been very clear about mitigating factors and the uncertainty on his twitter account. https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464
viggity 7y ago
Influenza has a CFR of 0.1% COVID-19 has CFR of 2-3% (20-30x higher). Officially the CFR for COVID is ~3.3% but it is thought that is too high because there is thought to be many people who have it who are asymptomatic or have a mild reaction. FTR - 2% of 40% is 2.6 million. The R0 is the highest driving factor for how many people will end up getting it the first year (aka R-Naught, is how many people on average an infected person spreads the infection to). R0 for flu is 1.3. R0 for COVID is estimated to be 2.6, but I just read that the R0 is thought to be overestimated. and closer to 2.0. An R0 of 2.6 => closer to 70% of people. R0 of 2.0 => closer to 40% of people. This is frightening as hell.
- he0001 7y ago
  I think people forgets that if the ordinary flu would have caused this outbreak the counter measurements would probably be the same. But now it’s too late and too complex to stop it. Having two such viruses would probably very problematic and expensive. And which I believe many who compares this to the flu, forgets that we don’t know what this virus does and can cause. A person that had their lungs destroyed because, if true, the coronavirus still will have a miserable life than just dying. Assuming that the death rate is 1% there perhaps be 10% who will have major issues after an infection. That’s not dying but still bad enough.

by fooey 7y ago

Proziam 7y ago

I've seen very different estimates. I'm gonna go off on a limb and say that there's probably more misinformation out there than real information. People should remain calm, take [0]reasonable precautions, and make decisions based on the latest information from credible sources such as the [1]CDC - rather than the media. [0]https://twitter.com/eugenegu/status/1235247642814214145 https://twitter.com/eugenegu/status/1235247642814214145 [1]https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/related-stigma.html https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/about/related-stig...

fooey 7y ago
The 40-70% number is from a Harvard Professor of Epidemiology https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-person-with-coronavirus-infect-11581676200?mod=rsswn https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-many-people-might-one-perso... > “I think it is likely we’ll see a global pandemic,” said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health. “If a pandemic happens, 40% to 70% of people world-wide are likely to be infected in the coming year. What proportion of those will be symptomatic, I can’t give a good number.”
- Proziam 7y ago
  "If", then he goes on to give a huge range, and then goes on to say that he can't give even an estimate of what percentage would be symptomatic. Then, he goes on to give an entirely different range on Twitter, including another statement that he should have said "without effective controls" - https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464?s=20 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464?s=2... So, basically, you proved my point that everyone is so damn eager to talk about this that they'll make claims without sufficient evidence and scare people into distress.
- el_benhameen 7y ago
  He has since revised his estimate down to 20-60%. Which is still a lot, of course, but I think reflects the uncertainty here. He's also been very clear about mitigating factors and the uncertainty on his twitter account. https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464 https://twitter.com/mlipsitch/status/1234879949946814464

viggity 7y ago

Influenza has a CFR of 0.1% COVID-19 has CFR of 2-3% (20-30x higher). Officially the CFR for COVID is ~3.3% but it is thought that is too high because there is thought to be many people who have it who are asymptomatic or have a mild reaction. FTR - 2% of 40% is 2.6 million. The R0 is the highest driving factor for how many people will end up getting it the first year (aka R-Naught, is how many people on average an infected person spreads the infection to). R0 for flu is 1.3. R0 for COVID is estimated to be 2.6, but I just read that the R0 is thought to be overestimated. and closer to 2.0. An R0 of 2.6 => closer to 70% of people. R0 of 2.0 => closer to 40% of people. This is frightening as hell.

he0001 7y ago
I think people forgets that if the ordinary flu would have caused this outbreak the counter measurements would probably be the same. But now it’s too late and too complex to stop it. Having two such viruses would probably very problematic and expensive. And which I believe many who compares this to the flu, forgets that we don’t know what this virus does and can cause. A person that had their lungs destroyed because, if true, the coronavirus still will have a miserable life than just dying. Assuming that the death rate is 1% there perhaps be 10% who will have major issues after an infection. That’s not dying but still bad enough.