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You're making a somewhat dangerous mistake in your analysis. South Korea's death rate is not well established yet: 7% of their cases were new just in the last
by dgacmu 7y ago
You're making a somewhat dangerous mistake in your analysis. South Korea's death rate is not well established yet: 7% of their cases were new just in the last day, and they've had very few people with confirmed recovery yet. There are likely to be more deaths to come.
- anu7df 7y agoAgreed. I had tried to account for it, but did not write it since I was hoping to avoid a longer comment and those calculations are more fraught with errors.. Edited my parent comment now to include all of it.
- asdfman123 7y agoTo correctly analyze the morality rates you have to take a lot of things into account: hardly anyone is being honest (South Korea is better, but not perfect), testing is rate limited, death rates are a lagging indicator, etc. etc. etc. Lots of experts have made guesses with these assumptions factored in, but at this point, there is so much uncertainty it's hard for anyone to tell.