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A single individual getting coronavirus isn't a big deal. Chances are they will be fine. The problem is that it's very infectious, R0 could be 6+ where the flu
by jennyyang 7y ago
A single individual getting coronavirus isn't a big deal. Chances are they will be fine.
The problem is that it's very infectious, R0 could be 6+ where the flu is about 1-2. That means it's 3-6 times more contagious than the flu, so it spreads very very quickly.
At the same time, it causes severe symptoms in 15-20% of cases. When these people have access to medical care, they will likely survive. But if they don't get access to timely health care, they might die, which is what happened in China.
The problem with both the above is that you will get many, many people infected all at the same time, and you might get a few hundred people with severe symptoms in a small city. That's enough to overrun several hospitals all at the same time. The US has about 2.5 hospital beds for 10,000 citizens, which is 31st in the world. Japan and Korea have over 12 per 10,000 citizens. the top 2 in the world. And the patients that get severe need ventilators which are even less than this.
Once the hospital beds are filled, people start dying, which causes panic. Then economies will start to suffer because no one will eat at restaurants, people will panic at Costco like we've seen, businesses will go out of business.
People forget that this is simple math. Coronavirus will spread very quickly in the US and across the world. And many people will die and all hospitals will get overrun. What we need is at-home treatment and to somehow get people to avoid getting severe symptoms. If warm summer weather decreases the R0, then we might be able to avoid it, but some parts of the Northern Hemisphere are still in winter and won't be warm for at least 2 months.
- hackeer 7y agowhere are you getting the info to say only 15-20% percent of the cases show symptoms?
- asdfman123 7y agoI believe reading that 14% of cases are severe, so it sounds roughly accurate. I think a lot more show symptoms, though, even if they're mild.
- jennyyang 7y ago15-20% show severe symptoms, not just "symptoms". 80%+ show mild symptoms or are asymptomatic.
- asdfman123 7y agoI believe the only thing a hospital can offer is a ventilator -- in the worst cases, the disease slashes your lung capacity and a ventilator will keep you oxygenated. Hospitals will only help if you feel like you can't breathe (and we do not have anywhere near the amount of ventilators that we'll need for this), so the vast majority of people should self-quarantine, take pain killers for fever and wait for it to pass.
- jpindar 7y agoWhy do people say that warm weather will help, when there are many cases in tropical countries now?