3 ms·
The coronavirus is a magnitude deadlier than the flu, according to all studies I know of that attempt to estimate the Infection Fatality Ratio. The IFR is estim
by mrb 7y ago
The coronavirus is a magnitude deadlier than the flu, according to all studies I know of that attempt to estimate the Infection Fatality Ratio. The IFR is estimated between 0.5% and 1.6% which is between 5x and 16x deadlier than the flu (0.1%): see links to the 4 studies at https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--validation https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--... Given that the flu kills half a million per year, I'll let you image how many could be killed by a disease a magnitude deadlier... But of course the death toll will depend on how the world reacts to the outbreak. If every country implements measures as severe as China by locking down most major cities worldwide, we may limit damages.
Incidentally, the upper end of this range makes COVID19 comparable to the 1918 Spanish Flu (IFR ~2%) according to experts (for example see https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an...). And keep in mind the IFR, unlike the CFR (Case Fatility Ratio), is the metric that takes into account undetected mild or asymptomatic cases.