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3.4% of reported cases have died. That doesn’t mean the actual IFR is 3.4%. Data modeling suggests it’s closer to 0.98%. It’s also important to note that age p
by capkutay 7y ago
3.4% of reported cases have died. That doesn’t mean the actual IFR is 3.4%.
Data modeling suggests it’s closer to 0.98%. It’s also important to note that age plays a significant factor. The IFR is about 0.2% for young healthy people, while it is quite dangerous for people over 60 with existing conditions.
https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an...
- the_af 7y agoThanks! That's interesting. I suspected there's a methodological flaw in assuming actual death rates from the sample of detected cases who died. We need this voice of reason. Otherwise we're just panicking.
- edmundsauto 7y agoJust curious, what is the mortality rate of the regular flu for young healthy people?
- WaltPurvis 7y agoFor US adults ages 18-49, it varies (depending on the severity of flu strains) between .01% and .02%. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html
- bcrosby95 7y ago0.98% seems to assume your medical system doesn't get overloaded: > evidence to date points toward 2019-nCoV having the potential to have comparable severity to the 1918 flu pandemic in the absence of effective control and treatment, when averaged across all ages. Early detection and isolation is key. Much of the world seems to be doing a poor job of it, and that is what is causing people to be concerned.
- ouid 7y ago.2% if you are 30, .2% is greater than your cumulative risk from driving. It's a huge risk.