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WHO says coronavirus death rate is 3.4% globally, higher than previously thought

Haga 7y ago
But still not a pandemic cause China pays to well adds WHO.
neilwilson 7y ago
I’m really surprised that WHO isn’t publishing the percentage of hospitalisations that die. That’s the only way you’re going to get an accurate denominator with a confirmed diagnosis and which has a sufficiently standard filter to be compared directly to seasonal flu. Then we’ll genuinely know how dangerous this virus is compared to flu. If anybody has seen this stat please link to it. I haven’t been able to find it, yet it is available for flu.
- solipsism 7y ago
  That's what this number is. Mortality rate of patients with COVID-19.
- onetimemanytime 7y ago
  >>In comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected, he said. Probably this is it? Unless it was apples to apples, maybe he would not have said so?
  - DarthGhandi 7y ago
    Given that 50 million catch the flu in the US each year would you say 1 in 6 people actually get tested for it or it's an estimation based on years of data. I'd be incredibly wary of anyone claiming to know how many have been infected by a novel virus only discovered 3 months ago. You simply can't estimate that with current data. Not to mention the heavily tourist dependent countries in Asia that are willfully ignoring testing and updating the media on statistics. The 4th biggest country on Earth which has a large number of tourists for Chinese New Year has reported 2 confirmed cases as of today. Tad doubtful.
- downerending 7y ago
  It's not that it's inaccurate, but rather there are simply multiple statistics that one might be interested in (many of which are not available). How many humans will die? Of those who catch the virus, how many will die? Of those showing symptoms, how many will die? Of those seeking medical care, how many will die? Of those admitted to a hospital, how many will die? Of those who are critical, how many will die?
viraptor 7y ago
I think this number should really be accompanied by a split by age. See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... for example: 80+ years old - 14.8% ... 60-69 years old - 3.6% ... 10-19 years old - 0.2% The average across all population gives an interesting point for the virus spread and various statistics. It doesn't really represent a risk for a given person, which is what a common person is likely interested in.
- eveningcoffee 7y ago
  So you get the virus and you will be fine but you will infect your grand parents and kill them. Or you infect your old professor, go worker, your friend who just had heart or lung issues and kill them too. Is not about personal risk, it is about global risk.
  - viraptor 7y ago
    > Is not about personal risk, it is about global risk. It depends what you want to know about. It's either one of those. Or both.
    - eveningcoffee 7y ago
      True. I just included my comment because I think the view of this has to be balanced. People should not just look of their bracket and dismiss the elderly.
  - onetimemanytime 7y ago
    I said in another thread...obviously a lot people in the 70's and 80's die anyway. How do we calculate cause of death in that case? If, say, 15% of 85+ yo people die anyway a year, will it matter if they died from regular flu or from this?
    - eveningcoffee 7y ago
      I think it matters if they have now higher likelihood to die (it looks like surviving flu is more likely than covid-19) and if they do so in large numbers overwhelming the healthcare system (so also other people have higher likelihood to die).
eveningcoffee 7y ago
This rate is Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - that is total deaths / total infections. Due to the rapid growth of infections this still is not the most accurate prediction. If the delay between getting infected and dying is taken into account then the rate becomes 4-4.5%. You can read more about the discussion on this topic here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...
covidanon 7y ago
Coronavirus looks like it might give American millennials everything they were hoping to get from Bernie. A virus which for young people just means they stay inside for a couple weeks, while simultaneously triggering a massive transfer of wealth from rich old people to younger people and the government (inheritance, taxes) , frees up substantial amounts of housing, reduces the social security deficit and replaces years or decades of medical care costs with a trivial temporary spike. This virus is looking like a dream scenario for left-wing / liberal ideologies and people who have been craving 'Creative Destruction' of the current system. While there is an initial emotional response that it feels bad to see the upside in some elderly people losing the last few years of their life, ethically it seems no different or maybe preferable to losing years of labor to taxation to accomplish the same outcomes.
- krapp 7y ago
  This isn't 4chan. Troll accounts aren't welcome here.

Haga 7y ago

But still not a pandemic cause China pays to well adds WHO.

I’m really surprised that WHO isn’t publishing the percentage of hospitalisations that die. That’s the only way you’re going to get an accurate denominator with a confirmed diagnosis and which has a sufficiently standard filter to be compared directly to seasonal flu. Then we’ll genuinely know how dangerous this virus is compared to flu. If anybody has seen this stat please link to it. I haven’t been able to find it, yet it is available for flu.

solipsism 7y ago
That's what this number is. Mortality rate of patients with COVID-19.
onetimemanytime 7y ago
>>In comparison, seasonal flu generally kills far fewer than 1% of those infected, he said. Probably this is it? Unless it was apples to apples, maybe he would not have said so?
- DarthGhandi 7y ago
  Given that 50 million catch the flu in the US each year would you say 1 in 6 people actually get tested for it or it's an estimation based on years of data. I'd be incredibly wary of anyone claiming to know how many have been infected by a novel virus only discovered 3 months ago. You simply can't estimate that with current data. Not to mention the heavily tourist dependent countries in Asia that are willfully ignoring testing and updating the media on statistics. The 4th biggest country on Earth which has a large number of tourists for Chinese New Year has reported 2 confirmed cases as of today. Tad doubtful.
downerending 7y ago
It's not that it's inaccurate, but rather there are simply multiple statistics that one might be interested in (many of which are not available). How many humans will die? Of those who catch the virus, how many will die? Of those showing symptoms, how many will die? Of those seeking medical care, how many will die? Of those admitted to a hospital, how many will die? Of those who are critical, how many will die?

viraptor 7y ago

I think this number should really be accompanied by a split by age. See https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se... for example: 80+ years old - 14.8% ... 60-69 years old - 3.6% ... 10-19 years old - 0.2% The average across all population gives an interesting point for the virus spread and various statistics. It doesn't really represent a risk for a given person, which is what a common person is likely interested in.

eveningcoffee 7y ago
So you get the virus and you will be fine but you will infect your grand parents and kill them. Or you infect your old professor, go worker, your friend who just had heart or lung issues and kill them too. Is not about personal risk, it is about global risk.
- viraptor 7y ago
  > Is not about personal risk, it is about global risk. It depends what you want to know about. It's either one of those. Or both.
  - eveningcoffee 7y ago
    True. I just included my comment because I think the view of this has to be balanced. People should not just look of their bracket and dismiss the elderly.
- onetimemanytime 7y ago
  I said in another thread...obviously a lot people in the 70's and 80's die anyway. How do we calculate cause of death in that case? If, say, 15% of 85+ yo people die anyway a year, will it matter if they died from regular flu or from this?
  - eveningcoffee 7y ago
    I think it matters if they have now higher likelihood to die (it looks like surviving flu is more likely than covid-19) and if they do so in large numbers overwhelming the healthcare system (so also other people have higher likelihood to die).

eveningcoffee 7y ago

This rate is Case Fatality Rate (CFR) - that is total deaths / total infections. Due to the rapid growth of infections this still is not the most accurate prediction. If the delay between getting infected and dying is taken into account then the rate becomes 4-4.5%. You can read more about the discussion on this topic here https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-...

covidanon 7y ago

Coronavirus looks like it might give American millennials everything they were hoping to get from Bernie. A virus which for young people just means they stay inside for a couple weeks, while simultaneously triggering a massive transfer of wealth from rich old people to younger people and the government (inheritance, taxes) , frees up substantial amounts of housing, reduces the social security deficit and replaces years or decades of medical care costs with a trivial temporary spike. This virus is looking like a dream scenario for left-wing / liberal ideologies and people who have been craving 'Creative Destruction' of the current system. While there is an initial emotional response that it feels bad to see the upside in some elderly people losing the last few years of their life, ethically it seems no different or maybe preferable to losing years of labor to taxation to accomplish the same outcomes.

krapp 7y ago
This isn't 4chan. Troll accounts aren't welcome here.