5 ms·

Aren’t the hospitalization rates something like ~20% according to the main study that came out of China? Also, the cruise ship cases aren’t all resolved outcome

by gdubs 7y ago

Aren’t the hospitalization rates something like ~20% according to the main study that came out of China? Also, the cruise ship cases aren’t all resolved outcomes yet. Edit: link to China study summary below, but including it top-level here as well. http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...

learc83 7y ago
We don't have any idea what the hospitalization rates are. We only know what the hospitalization rates are for people who have a confirmed diagnosis, which skews towards people with severe symptoms. >Also, the cruise ship cases aren’t all resolved outcomes yet. No they aren't, but the vast majority have been symptomatic longer than the average time till hospitalization and the number in critical condition hasn't increased in days. It's very unlikely they'll get to anywhere near 20%. And this is in a more geriatric population.
- gdubs 7y ago
  Except we do have data, that’s my point. China’s study is being cited by most experts as this situation unfolds. It doesn’t mean these numbers will hold — it’s possible that what we see out of South Korea over the coming month might be more representative — but it’s what we have, and it’s not nothing: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...
  - treis 7y ago
    Lots of people on the ship that tested positive showed little to no symptoms. It's very likely that there are a large number of infections that have gone undetected. Until we test everyone we won't know the true number.
  - learc83 7y ago
    The data can't support your 20% hospitalization claim though, and no one in public health is using that study to make that claim. The study itself makes no such claims that this study is in any way applicable to the general population. About 40% of the patients in that study weren't even tested. They were included based on symptoms that include severe pneumonia. The ones who were tested, sought testing because they displayed symptoms severe enough to seek treatment. This is the very definition of selection bias, and there is absolutely no reason to pretend that a 20% hospitalization rate is a realistic outcome.
fauigerzigerk 7y ago
>Aren’t the hospitalization rates something like ~20% according to the main study that came out of China? Yes, but the reason why the Diamond Princess is interesting is that we know exactly how many of them got infected. We don't know that about any other population.
- gdubs 7y ago
  The diamond princess is... interesting, yes, but an unmitigated disaster is how most experts have defined it. It’s unclear we can extract meaningful info applicable to the rest of the world based on the cruise ship. Also consider my point that many, many of these cases are unresolved. Whereas the China study, which most health experts are relying on currently as our best guess - not the cruise ship — looks at resolved cases.
  - fauigerzigerk 7y ago
    I said myself that I didn't believe the cruise ship numbers were representative, but the 20% figure you cite isn't a realistic hospitalisation rate either as it only includes diagnosed cases. The number of undiagnosed cases is the great unknown that experts disagree on. It's also the basis for all the wild speculation out there. Under normal circumstances I would say let's test a random sample of the population in some affected area. But as test kits are scarce doing that would probably be ill advised.
    - gdubs 7y ago
      The same is true for the flu. People get it every year but they don’t go and get swabbed. I also agree that there’s a wide range of possibility. But I’m responding to the claim there’s no data with a study from China’s CDC that most experts are citing as the best info we have right now. Is it perfect? No. But the Diamond Princess isn’t a scientific study — it’s a mess. Edit: for a range of possible outcomes, this article is helpful: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/25/coronavirus-update-italy-mortality-rate-similar-to-chinas/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/25/coronaviru... At the low end are South Korea’s (mortality) numbers, at the extreme high Iran, and Italy aligning roughly with China’s study. The tl;dr is we have a fairly wide range of possible outcomes, but Italy is lining up with China’s findings.

by gdubs 7y ago

learc83 7y ago

We don't have any idea what the hospitalization rates are. We only know what the hospitalization rates are for people who have a confirmed diagnosis, which skews towards people with severe symptoms. >Also, the cruise ship cases aren’t all resolved outcomes yet. No they aren't, but the vast majority have been symptomatic longer than the average time till hospitalization and the number in critical condition hasn't increased in days. It's very unlikely they'll get to anywhere near 20%. And this is in a more geriatric population.

gdubs 7y ago
Except we do have data, that’s my point. China’s study is being cited by most experts as this situation unfolds. It doesn’t mean these numbers will hold — it’s possible that what we see out of South Korea over the coming month might be more representative — but it’s what we have, and it’s not nothing: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720...
- treis 7y ago
  Lots of people on the ship that tested positive showed little to no symptoms. It's very likely that there are a large number of infections that have gone undetected. Until we test everyone we won't know the true number.
- learc83 7y ago
  The data can't support your 20% hospitalization claim though, and no one in public health is using that study to make that claim. The study itself makes no such claims that this study is in any way applicable to the general population. About 40% of the patients in that study weren't even tested. They were included based on symptoms that include severe pneumonia. The ones who were tested, sought testing because they displayed symptoms severe enough to seek treatment. This is the very definition of selection bias, and there is absolutely no reason to pretend that a 20% hospitalization rate is a realistic outcome.

fauigerzigerk 7y ago

>Aren’t the hospitalization rates something like ~20% according to the main study that came out of China? Yes, but the reason why the Diamond Princess is interesting is that we know exactly how many of them got infected. We don't know that about any other population.

gdubs 7y ago
The diamond princess is... interesting, yes, but an unmitigated disaster is how most experts have defined it. It’s unclear we can extract meaningful info applicable to the rest of the world based on the cruise ship. Also consider my point that many, many of these cases are unresolved. Whereas the China study, which most health experts are relying on currently as our best guess - not the cruise ship — looks at resolved cases.
- fauigerzigerk 7y ago
  I said myself that I didn't believe the cruise ship numbers were representative, but the 20% figure you cite isn't a realistic hospitalisation rate either as it only includes diagnosed cases. The number of undiagnosed cases is the great unknown that experts disagree on. It's also the basis for all the wild speculation out there. Under normal circumstances I would say let's test a random sample of the population in some affected area. But as test kits are scarce doing that would probably be ill advised.
  - gdubs 7y ago
    The same is true for the flu. People get it every year but they don’t go and get swabbed. I also agree that there’s a wide range of possibility. But I’m responding to the claim there’s no data with a study from China’s CDC that most experts are citing as the best info we have right now. Is it perfect? No. But the Diamond Princess isn’t a scientific study — it’s a mess. Edit: for a range of possible outcomes, this article is helpful: https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/25/coronavirus-update-italy-mortality-rate-similar-to-chinas/ https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/02/25/coronaviru... At the low end are South Korea’s (mortality) numbers, at the extreme high Iran, and Italy aligning roughly with China’s study. The tl;dr is we have a fairly wide range of possible outcomes, but Italy is lining up with China’s findings.