5 ms·

Is there any sane information on this Covid-19 except alarmism?

anarbadalov 7y ago
Thomas Bollyky, the editor of Think Global Health and director of the global health program at the Council on Foreign Relations, is hosting an AMA on it right now! https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/fcwnw5/im_thomas_bollyky_the_director_of_the_global/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/fcwnw5/im_thomas... full disclosure: the company i work for (the MIT Press) published a book of his ("Plagues and the Paradox of Progress: Why the World Is Getting Healthier in Worrisome Ways") last year. edit: also, i don't this article is alarmist; it's a useful and measured piece by the former director of the CDC.
Diederich 7y ago
Here's some solid data: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 It's...sobering.
DiogenesKynikos 7y ago
This Week in Virology is a very accessible podcast hosted by real academic virologists: http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/ http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/ As you can imagine, their main topic over the past few weeks has been the new coronavirus. They're very sober and rational about the new virus, but they're pretty clear that it's an extremely serious issue. One issue that they raised in this week's podcast was that work on a SARS vaccine ended years ago. After the virus disappeared, there was no more commercial interest in developing a vaccine against it. Governments should have stepped in and continued research into coronavirus vaccines, but this sort of research is underfunded. The podcast hosts obviously have an interest in saying this, but given the current situation, I don't think anyone can really claim they're wrong!
kingkawn 7y ago
Has it occurred that the situation is in fact alarming?
sp332 7y ago
When does raising an alarm stop being "alarmist"? 5,000 dead? 10,000?
- MeltySmelty 7y ago
  Sadly, most people would rather ignore things until they have to deal with them. If more people were proactive rather than reactive, the world would be a better place.
- geofft 7y ago
  5,000 people die in New York City every month. Well over 10,000 people die from the normal seasonal flu each year in the US alone. Also in car crashes.
  - sp332 7y ago
    You didn't answer the question.
    - geofft 7y ago
      Then I will repeat myself more bluntly. Any alarm that would trigger on the annual seasonal flu or on merely the standard background death rate is a meaningless alarm and is therefore alarmist, so no, 5,000 to 10,000 deaths does not clear the threshold.
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lliamander 7y ago
There is the WHO: https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1234871709091667969 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1234871709091667969 COVID-19 is roughly 20x more lethal than the flu, and we have no therapies or vaccines. Fortunately (contrary to my prior understanding) it does not spread as efficiently as the flu, and there are measures that can be taken to help contain the spread.
- nsho 7y ago
  "With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19" Would be interesting to know how it is determined that it does not spread as efficiently as the flu.
vkou 7y ago
It's a much deadlier flu that nobody has an immunity to, that we can't vaccinate for, that China managed to contain at grievous economic cost, and that the United States is failing to contain. That should be pretty alarming. I understand that a 20-something-year-old with no medical conditions may not give a damn about this sort of thing, but as a public health problem, this one is incredibly serious.

Thomas Bollyky, the editor of Think Global Health and director of the global health program at the Council on Foreign Relations, is hosting an AMA on it right now! https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/fcwnw5/im_thomas_bollyky_the_director_of_the_global/ https://www.reddit.com/r/worldnews/comments/fcwnw5/im_thomas... full disclosure: the company i work for (the MIT Press) published a book of his ("Plagues and the Paradox of Progress: Why the World Is Getting Healthier in Worrisome Ways") last year. edit: also, i don't this article is alarmist; it's a useful and measured piece by the former director of the CDC.

Diederich 7y ago

Here's some solid data: https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032 It's...sobering.

DiogenesKynikos 7y ago

This Week in Virology is a very accessible podcast hosted by real academic virologists: http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/ http://www.microbe.tv/twiv/ As you can imagine, their main topic over the past few weeks has been the new coronavirus. They're very sober and rational about the new virus, but they're pretty clear that it's an extremely serious issue. One issue that they raised in this week's podcast was that work on a SARS vaccine ended years ago. After the virus disappeared, there was no more commercial interest in developing a vaccine against it. Governments should have stepped in and continued research into coronavirus vaccines, but this sort of research is underfunded. The podcast hosts obviously have an interest in saying this, but given the current situation, I don't think anyone can really claim they're wrong!

kingkawn 7y ago

Has it occurred that the situation is in fact alarming?

sp332 7y ago

When does raising an alarm stop being "alarmist"? 5,000 dead? 10,000?

MeltySmelty 7y ago
Sadly, most people would rather ignore things until they have to deal with them. If more people were proactive rather than reactive, the world would be a better place.
geofft 7y ago
5,000 people die in New York City every month. Well over 10,000 people die from the normal seasonal flu each year in the US alone. Also in car crashes.
- sp332 7y ago
  You didn't answer the question.
  - geofft 7y ago
    Then I will repeat myself more bluntly. Any alarm that would trigger on the annual seasonal flu or on merely the standard background death rate is a meaningless alarm and is therefore alarmist, so no, 5,000 to 10,000 deaths does not clear the threshold.
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lliamander 7y ago

There is the WHO: https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1234871709091667969 https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1234871709091667969 COVID-19 is roughly 20x more lethal than the flu, and we have no therapies or vaccines. Fortunately (contrary to my prior understanding) it does not spread as efficiently as the flu, and there are measures that can be taken to help contain the spread.

nsho 7y ago
"With influenza, people who are infected but not yet sick are major drivers of transmission, which does not appear to be the case for COVID-19" Would be interesting to know how it is determined that it does not spread as efficiently as the flu.

vkou 7y ago

It's a much deadlier flu that nobody has an immunity to, that we can't vaccinate for, that China managed to contain at grievous economic cost, and that the United States is failing to contain. That should be pretty alarming. I understand that a 20-something-year-old with no medical conditions may not give a damn about this sort of thing, but as a public health problem, this one is incredibly serious.