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People keep saying that responses are irrational but we know next to nothing about this virus. We don’t have a firm understanding of how deadly it is, how long

People keep saying that responses are irrational but we know next to nothing about this virus. We don’t have a firm understanding of how deadly it is, how long it takes to incubate, how easily it can be spread, or what long term damage it could do to people who recover. There are reports of kidney damage and damage to fertility among men who have recovered. Are those true? We don’t know. We have no idea. The rational response to a deadly virus with so many unknown factors is to hunker down, avoid mass gatherings, and exercise other precautionary measures. These precautionary measures mean fewer people traveling, going to the movies, going out to dinner, attending conferences, etc. There is nothing the Fed can do to blunt this reaction besides pour money into Coronavirus research and hope they find a vaccine or remedy before it drags the economy into a recession.

kickopotomus 7y ago
No, we know quite a bit about it at this point. The incubation period can range from 1-14 days but is 5 days on average[1][2]. The virus spreads through physical contact with commonly touched surfaces and through the air via droplets of saliva or mucus[2]. The deadliness of the disease is also becoming clear as time progresses. The current fatality rate is ~3% (likely overestimated) and most (almost all) deaths are either elderly or people with pre-existing heart or lung conditions[2][3]. Please refrain from fearmongering. Yes, COVID-19 is serious, but dishonestly inducing a public panic only makes matters worse. [1]: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses [2]: https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as-coronavirus-spreads-many-questions-and-some-answers-2020022719004#q2 https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as-coronavirus-spreads-m... [3]: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...
- op00to 7y ago
  What do people get out of fear mongering? It seriously baffles me how many smart, technical people just lose their shit with this stuff.
  - hurricanetc 7y ago
    Referring to the extreme uncertainty is not fear mongering. Read the links that were posted. They don't say what the individual confidently claims they do. We know little and what we do know are guesses with wide ranges.
  - asdfman123 7y ago
    Saying that this is a big deal isn't fearmongering -- all of our elected officials are downplaying this as hard as they can, and most people don't seem concerned about it. People need the truth, and they need time to be able to react to it before we're already in the midst of a bad situation. A Harvard scientist predicted that 40-70% of the world could get this, and the death rate could be 1%. That rate is much higher among the elderly and the unwell. A lot of people are going to die amidst the backdrop of a completely overloaded and mostly unprepared healthcare system. We need to acknowledge that. I do not believe anything I've written is exaggerated or written from a place of fear.
- hurricanetc 7y ago
  Your links don't say what you think they say. Did you even read them? It's mostly ambiguous language and uncertainty. We think this, it's not certain that. It changes day to day. Case in point the incubation period from your own link. "Most estimates of the incubation period range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days. These estimates are updated as more information becomes available." How long does it remain on the surface. "It is not certain how long the virus survices on surfaces." Can asymptomatic people spread coronavirus? "How often asymptomatic transmission is occurring is unclear." How deadly is the coronavirus? "We don’t yet know." Can I catch the virus by eating food prepared by others? "It's not clear if this is possible." TLDR: We have decent guesses in some categories and in others we don't know at all. People acting like they know for sure the details of this virus are lying at worst and merely uninformed at best.
  - Fjolsvith 7y ago
    After a month there are still fewer US COVID-19 deaths than Tennessee tornado deaths from one day.
    - dragonwriter 7y ago
      Yeah, but Tennessee tornadoes don't go on day after day, increasing their scope of effect to injure/kill more each day.
  - kickopotomus 7y ago
    Well now you are just being willfully misleading. > Case in point the incubation period from your own link. "Most estimates of the incubation period range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days. These estimates are updated as more information becomes available." Yes, it continues to become more accurate. Initial reports thought the incubation period could be up to 20-30 days. Continued study of the virus has refined the numbers and will continue to do so. > How long does it remain on the surface. "It is not certain how long the virus survices on surfaces." Interesting that you purposefully leave out the rest of the quote: "It is not certain how long the virus that causes COVID-19 survives on surfaces, but it seems to behave like other coronaviruses. Studies suggest that coronaviruses (including preliminary information on the COVID-19 virus) may persist on surfaces for a few hours or up to several days. This may vary under different conditions (e.g. type of surface, temperature or humidity of the environment). If you think a surface may be infected, clean it with simple disinfectant to kill the virus and protect yourself and others. Clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water. Avoid touching your eyes, mouth, or nose." > How deadly is the coronavirus? "We don’t yet know." Again, you leave out the rest of the quote and this one has hard numbers behind it as the infection, recovery, and mortality rates are being tracked internationally. "As of February 25, 2020, the reported confirmed cases and deaths in China suggest the mortality rate is roughly 3%. It is important to remember that early on in an epidemic there is a “tip of the iceberg” phenomenon where we overestimate more severe cases and mild or asymptomatic cases go unrecognized, so the mortality seems higher than the reality. That may be happening when we speak of up to 3% mortality. By contrast, SARS had a mortality rate of around 10%; the MERS mortality rate is closer to 30% to 40%. There appear to be many more COVID-19 cases confirmed than there were with SARS and MERS." > Can I catch the virus by eating food prepared by others? "It's not clear if this is possible." Yet another misleading partial quote. "It’s not clear if this is possible, but if so it would be more likely to be the exception than the rule. That said, COVID-19 and other coronaviruses have been detected in the stool of certain patients, so we currently cannot rule out the possibility of occasional transmission from infected food handlers. The virus would likely be killed by cooking the food." None of these are "guesses". They are scientific observations backed by evidence. Stop spreading misinformation. You claimed that we "know next to nothing about this virus" which is simply not true.
- LifeLiverTransp 7y ago
  A fast spreading virus, can mutate at any given time. Making this the first wave of the real pandemic. We are not worried about COVID, but a SARS-COVID in the making in some lung somewhere. With authoritys showing how little they where able to handle one epidemic, trust that they would decently handle a real big one in the 2nd wave is not low- its none existant at this point. And propagandizing and debunkery does not win that trust back. This is not a fear mongering issue, this is a real quality of government and institutional work issue. How to put this discredit of a whole ruling caste into words. Its like the major of pompej trying to explain away a volcanic erruption as something good (ash is a fertilizer) because there is no just no plans for evacuating the city- the major cant even imagine the city evacuated. The whole system (including the oppossition) displays a handicap (due to mixed up prioritys, whatever...), unable to perform simple tasks and use of necessary capabilitys, which other, democratic countrys (south korea) clearly process and display. If there was the choice, im pretty sure there would by now in europe and america a majority for ousting the whole political caste- and replace them with capable government as displayed in south korea, taiwan and similar capable castes. And that view is bipartisanal by now.

kickopotomus 7y ago

No, we know quite a bit about it at this point. The incubation period can range from 1-14 days but is 5 days on average[1][2]. The virus spreads through physical contact with commonly touched surfaces and through the air via droplets of saliva or mucus[2]. The deadliness of the disease is also becoming clear as time progresses. The current fatality rate is ~3% (likely overestimated) and most (almost all) deaths are either elderly or people with pre-existing heart or lung conditions[2][3]. Please refrain from fearmongering. Yes, COVID-19 is serious, but dishonestly inducing a public panic only makes matters worse. [1]: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses [2]: https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as-coronavirus-spreads-many-questions-and-some-answers-2020022719004#q2 https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/as-coronavirus-spreads-m... [3]: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/ https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-se...

op00to 7y ago
What do people get out of fear mongering? It seriously baffles me how many smart, technical people just lose their shit with this stuff.
- hurricanetc 7y ago
  Referring to the extreme uncertainty is not fear mongering. Read the links that were posted. They don't say what the individual confidently claims they do. We know little and what we do know are guesses with wide ranges.
- asdfman123 7y ago
  Saying that this is a big deal isn't fearmongering -- all of our elected officials are downplaying this as hard as they can, and most people don't seem concerned about it. People need the truth, and they need time to be able to react to it before we're already in the midst of a bad situation. A Harvard scientist predicted that 40-70% of the world could get this, and the death rate could be 1%. That rate is much higher among the elderly and the unwell. A lot of people are going to die amidst the backdrop of a completely overloaded and mostly unprepared healthcare system. We need to acknowledge that. I do not believe anything I've written is exaggerated or written from a place of fear.
hurricanetc 7y ago
Your links don't say what you think they say. Did you even read them? It's mostly ambiguous language and uncertainty. We think this, it's not certain that. It changes day to day. Case in point the incubation period from your own link. "Most estimates of the incubation period range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days. These estimates are updated as more information becomes available." How long does it remain on the surface. "It is not certain how long the virus survices on surfaces." Can asymptomatic people spread coronavirus? "How often asymptomatic transmission is occurring is unclear." How deadly is the coronavirus? "We don’t yet know." Can I catch the virus by eating food prepared by others? "It's not clear if this is possible." TLDR: We have decent guesses in some categories and in others we don't know at all. People acting like they know for sure the details of this virus are lying at worst and merely uninformed at best.
- Fjolsvith 7y ago
  After a month there are still fewer US COVID-19 deaths than Tennessee tornado deaths from one day.
  - dragonwriter 7y ago
    Yeah, but Tennessee tornadoes don't go on day after day, increasing their scope of effect to injure/kill more each day.
- kickopotomus 7y ago
  Well now you are just being willfully misleading. > Case in point the incubation period from your own link. "Most estimates of the incubation period range from 1-14 days, most commonly around five days. These estimates are updated as more information becomes available." Yes, it continues to become more accurate. Initial reports thought the incubation period could be up to 20-30 days. Continued study of the virus has refined the numbers and will continue to do so. > How long does it remain on the surface. "It is not certain how long the virus survices on surfaces." Interesting that you purposefully leave out the rest of the quote: "It is not certain how long the virus that causes COVID-19 survives on surfaces, but it seems to behave like other coronaviruses. Studies suggest that coronaviruses (including preliminary information on the COVID-19 virus) may persist on surfaces for a few hours or up to several days. This may vary under different conditions (e.g. type of surface, temperature or humidity of the environment). If you think a surface may be infected, clean it with simple disinfectant to kill the virus and protect yourself and others. Clean your hands with an alcohol-based hand rub or wash them with soap and water. Avoid touching your eyes, mouth, or nose." > How deadly is the coronavirus? "We don’t yet know." Again, you leave out the rest of the quote and this one has hard numbers behind it as the infection, recovery, and mortality rates are being tracked internationally. "As of February 25, 2020, the reported confirmed cases and deaths in China suggest the mortality rate is roughly 3%. It is important to remember that early on in an epidemic there is a “tip of the iceberg” phenomenon where we overestimate more severe cases and mild or asymptomatic cases go unrecognized, so the mortality seems higher than the reality. That may be happening when we speak of up to 3% mortality. By contrast, SARS had a mortality rate of around 10%; the MERS mortality rate is closer to 30% to 40%. There appear to be many more COVID-19 cases confirmed than there were with SARS and MERS." > Can I catch the virus by eating food prepared by others? "It's not clear if this is possible." Yet another misleading partial quote. "It’s not clear if this is possible, but if so it would be more likely to be the exception than the rule. That said, COVID-19 and other coronaviruses have been detected in the stool of certain patients, so we currently cannot rule out the possibility of occasional transmission from infected food handlers. The virus would likely be killed by cooking the food." None of these are "guesses". They are scientific observations backed by evidence. Stop spreading misinformation. You claimed that we "know next to nothing about this virus" which is simply not true.
LifeLiverTransp 7y ago
A fast spreading virus, can mutate at any given time. Making this the first wave of the real pandemic. We are not worried about COVID, but a SARS-COVID in the making in some lung somewhere. With authoritys showing how little they where able to handle one epidemic, trust that they would decently handle a real big one in the 2nd wave is not low- its none existant at this point. And propagandizing and debunkery does not win that trust back. This is not a fear mongering issue, this is a real quality of government and institutional work issue. How to put this discredit of a whole ruling caste into words. Its like the major of pompej trying to explain away a volcanic erruption as something good (ash is a fertilizer) because there is no just no plans for evacuating the city- the major cant even imagine the city evacuated. The whole system (including the oppossition) displays a handicap (due to mixed up prioritys, whatever...), unable to perform simple tasks and use of necessary capabilitys, which other, democratic countrys (south korea) clearly process and display. If there was the choice, im pretty sure there would by now in europe and america a majority for ousting the whole political caste- and replace them with capable government as displayed in south korea, taiwan and similar capable castes. And that view is bipartisanal by now.