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The denominator was estimated by multiple teams: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22405204 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22405204 That's why we are f
by mrb 7y ago
The denominator was estimated by multiple teams: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22405204 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22405204 That's why we are fairly confident in the approximative CFR range of 0.5%-1.6% See more details in all the studies I link to in my post at: https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--validation https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--...
- m0zg 7y agoSounds about right. But that's not "we're all gonna die" estimate of 5x-10x.
- mrb 7y agoYes it is. 0.5-1.6% means the coronavirus is 5x-16x deadlier than the flu (0.1%) So the fatality, at the upper end of the range, would be comparable to the 1918 pandemic flu (estimated at 2.04%: https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an...)
- piva00 7y agoDo you have grandparents? Or elderly parents? Or know anyone over the age of 60-70 that you care about? Or anyone with a compromised immunological system? If yes to any of these questions you should at least empathise that maybe they might suffer from a new and unknown disease that is potentially deadly to them. Not everyone is going to die but a lot of people will feel the effects of this uncontained epidemic in their personal lives, don't you care about that?