3 ms·

5-10x more deadly than influenza is “only slightly worse”?

m0zg 7y ago
Nobody knows if it's 5-10x more deadly because nobody knows the denominator - the _total_ number of cases, including the cases which are mild (which most of them are), and for which people are unlikely to seek treatment. Also, even allowing hypothetically that it's 5x as deadly in China, that doesn't mean its CFR is the same in the developed world.
- chapelierfou 7y ago
  So nobody knows, but somehow you know better?
- mrb 7y ago
  The denominator was estimated by multiple teams: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22405204 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22405204 That's why we are fairly confident in the approximative CFR range of 0.5%-1.6% See more details in all the studies I link to in my post at: https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--validation https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--...
  - m0zg 7y ago
    Sounds about right. But that's not "we're all gonna die" estimate of 5x-10x.
    - mrb 7y ago
      Yes it is. 0.5-1.6% means the coronavirus is 5x-16x deadlier than the flu (0.1%) So the fatality, at the upper end of the range, would be comparable to the 1918 pandemic flu (estimated at 2.04%: https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an...)
    - piva00 7y ago
      Do you have grandparents? Or elderly parents? Or know anyone over the age of 60-70 that you care about? Or anyone with a compromised immunological system? If yes to any of these questions you should at least empathise that maybe they might suffer from a new and unknown disease that is potentially deadly to them. Not everyone is going to die but a lot of people will feel the effects of this uncontained epidemic in their personal lives, don't you care about that?
- cycrutchfield 7y ago
  Wuhan is pretty developed. Turns out level of development means very little when the number of critical patients exceeds the number of ICU beds. Feel free to cite any other scientific study that establishes a lower CFR, by the way.
  - pbourke 7y ago
    > Wuhan is pretty developed. Yes, western countries should not deceive themselves about the standard of care. Bruce Aylward of WHO says that they rapidly scaled up to world-leading capability [1]: > they find cases fast, get them isolated, in treatment, and supported early. Second thing they do is ventilate dozens in the average hospital; they use extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [removing blood from a person’s body and oxygenating their red blood cells] when ventilation doesn’t work. This is sophisticated health care. They have a survival rate for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying. [1] https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-ch... The more that comes out about China's response, the more I fear that it will be hard for anyone else to follow, and not just or primarily due to the severe quarantine. China snapped its fingers and went to a wartime footing.

m0zg 7y ago

Nobody knows if it's 5-10x more deadly because nobody knows the denominator - the _total_ number of cases, including the cases which are mild (which most of them are), and for which people are unlikely to seek treatment. Also, even allowing hypothetically that it's 5x as deadly in China, that doesn't mean its CFR is the same in the developed world.

chapelierfou 7y ago
So nobody knows, but somehow you know better?
mrb 7y ago
The denominator was estimated by multiple teams: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22405204 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22405204 That's why we are fairly confident in the approximative CFR range of 0.5%-1.6% See more details in all the studies I link to in my post at: https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--validation https://blog.zorinaq.com/case-fatality-ratio-ncov/#updates--...
- m0zg 7y ago
  Sounds about right. But that's not "we're all gonna die" estimate of 5x-10x.
  - mrb 7y ago
    Yes it is. 0.5-1.6% means the coronavirus is 5x-16x deadlier than the flu (0.1%) So the fatality, at the upper end of the range, would be comparable to the 1918 pandemic flu (estimated at 2.04%: https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/analyses/first_adjusted_mortality_estimates_and_risk_assessment/2019-nCoV-preliminary_age_and_time_adjusted_mortality_rates_and_pandemic_risk_assessment.html https://institutefordiseasemodeling.github.io/nCoV-public/an...)
  - piva00 7y ago
    Do you have grandparents? Or elderly parents? Or know anyone over the age of 60-70 that you care about? Or anyone with a compromised immunological system? If yes to any of these questions you should at least empathise that maybe they might suffer from a new and unknown disease that is potentially deadly to them. Not everyone is going to die but a lot of people will feel the effects of this uncontained epidemic in their personal lives, don't you care about that?
cycrutchfield 7y ago
Wuhan is pretty developed. Turns out level of development means very little when the number of critical patients exceeds the number of ICU beds. Feel free to cite any other scientific study that establishes a lower CFR, by the way.
- pbourke 7y ago
  > Wuhan is pretty developed. Yes, western countries should not deceive themselves about the standard of care. Bruce Aylward of WHO says that they rapidly scaled up to world-leading capability [1]: > they find cases fast, get them isolated, in treatment, and supported early. Second thing they do is ventilate dozens in the average hospital; they use extracorporeal membrane oxygenation [removing blood from a person’s body and oxygenating their red blood cells] when ventilation doesn’t work. This is sophisticated health care. They have a survival rate for this disease I would not extrapolate to the rest of the world. What you’ve seen in Italy and Iran is that a lot of people are dying. [1] https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-china https://www.vox.com/2020/3/2/21161067/coronavirus-covid19-ch... The more that comes out about China's response, the more I fear that it will be hard for anyone else to follow, and not just or primarily due to the severe quarantine. China snapped its fingers and went to a wartime footing.