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Thanks for sharing the journal articles. According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2,

Thanks for sharing the journal articles. According to [1], on January 31, 2020 US had 6 cases of Covid-19. And according to several news sites, as of March 2, 2020, there are 101 cases. If I did the math correctly, that seems to be doubling about every four days or so, which lines up with the doubling period mentioned.

barbegal 7y ago
Its difficult to tell because the US hasn't been doing as much testing as other countries. You can look at the curves for various countries at https://covid.bio/ https://covid.bio/ Most countries that haven't initiated large scale quarantines have a doubling period of between 1.5 and 5 days
- dnautics 7y ago
  On the other hand, one wonders if that curve measures not infection rates, but testing kit manufacturing output.
tuna-piano 7y ago
I think the numbers can't be looked at that way for a variety of reasons, primarily the fact that we are rapidly expanding testing capability in the US right now, so we will see a rapid increase in the number of diagnosed cases. However that does not mean there is the same rapid increase in the number of cases so quickly. Basically we are going to be catching up with cases from the past 2-4 weeks in the coming week.
rpearl 7y ago
the us has tested less than 500 cases in total
masonic 7y ago
doubling about every four days or so, 6 + 31 days would be about 800 cases.
- xapata 7y ago
  If we have about 100 cases today, and that doubles every 4 days, we'd have about 60k cases in 37 days. (6 + 31) / 4 = 9.25 2 ^ 9.25 = 608 608 * 100 ~= 60k
  - masonic 7y ago
    When I wrote "6 + 31 days" I meant "6 (initial) cases, 31 days later". I thought that was clear in context.
    - xapata 7y ago
      Ah, yes `6 * 2 ^ (31 / 4)` is much larger than 100. Good point.
Grue3 7y ago
Your March 2 numbers include Diamond Princess cases (45?) which have not been in contact with the rest of the population.
- Enginerrrd 7y ago
  No there are other estimates of a few hundred cases in the bay area that are sensible. Or at least they were a week ago. To get two in-the-wild cases serious enough for hospitalization and testing (overriding the CDC testing criteria at the time) you'd expect there to be at least around 100-200 cases at the time of hospitalization.

barbegal 7y ago

Its difficult to tell because the US hasn't been doing as much testing as other countries. You can look at the curves for various countries at https://covid.bio/ https://covid.bio/ Most countries that haven't initiated large scale quarantines have a doubling period of between 1.5 and 5 days

dnautics 7y ago
On the other hand, one wonders if that curve measures not infection rates, but testing kit manufacturing output.

tuna-piano 7y ago

I think the numbers can't be looked at that way for a variety of reasons, primarily the fact that we are rapidly expanding testing capability in the US right now, so we will see a rapid increase in the number of diagnosed cases. However that does not mean there is the same rapid increase in the number of cases so quickly. Basically we are going to be catching up with cases from the past 2-4 weeks in the coming week.

rpearl 7y ago

the us has tested less than 500 cases in total

masonic 7y ago

doubling about every four days or so, 6 + 31 days would be about 800 cases.

xapata 7y ago
If we have about 100 cases today, and that doubles every 4 days, we'd have about 60k cases in 37 days. (6 + 31) / 4 = 9.25 2 ^ 9.25 = 608 608 * 100 ~= 60k
- masonic 7y ago
  When I wrote "6 + 31 days" I meant "6 (initial) cases, 31 days later". I thought that was clear in context.
  - xapata 7y ago
    Ah, yes `6 * 2 ^ (31 / 4)` is much larger than 100. Good point.

Grue3 7y ago

Your March 2 numbers include Diamond Princess cases (45?) which have not been in contact with the rest of the population.

Enginerrrd 7y ago
No there are other estimates of a few hundred cases in the bay area that are sensible. Or at least they were a week ago. To get two in-the-wild cases serious enough for hospitalization and testing (overriding the CDC testing criteria at the time) you'd expect there to be at least around 100-200 cases at the time of hospitalization.