5 ms·

school and business closures should have happened two or three weeks ago when it was clear that the US still had a chance to nip the infection in the bud. now,

school and business closures should have happened two or three weeks ago when it was clear that the US still had a chance to nip the infection in the bud. now, it's way too late. we've had numerous instances of community transmission where we can't track the origin of the infection. we'll need to shutter everything for a longer period if we want to prevent widespread infections.

usaar333 7y ago
School closures can be enormously disruptive if not handled correctly. As OP notes, who is going to watch the kids if you close schools? We have large numbers of essential services (medical, utility, food, etc.) that must keep running. - perhaps you could set up childcare for said workers, but again, you have to be careful here your prevention doesn't cause more harm.
- PeterisP 7y ago
  The whole point of school closures is to avoid kids from many families being together and mingling, so setting up a community childcare service for said workers is not appropriate. The counterpart to "who's going to work if they have to watch the kids?" is "who's going to work if they're infected because kids braught the virus from school?". Also, the childcare argument applies to just the first few years of the school - most of school-aged kids are old enough to stay home unsupervised if it's needed, and high school kids can supervise younger siblings.
  - usaar333 7y ago
    > Also, the childcare argument applies to just the first few years of the school - most of school-aged kids are old enough to stay home unsupervised if it's needed, It's a problem for basically kids ages 0-11 (depending on where your cut-off is); that's strictly the majority of children and hits a huge percentage of the workforce. Again, you very well can end up worse off if you do this (someone needs to work on medical treatments, medical research, etc.)
    - PeterisP 7y ago
      In an epidemic, I'd put the cutoff much lower than that - I wouldn't feel entirely comfortable leaving an 8-year old home alone for the whole day in normal conditions, mostly because there's no really good reason for doing this, but during an epidemic that might be the safest option available; if you leave them appropriate lunch then 8 or 9 year old kid should be self-sufficient enough to not do stupid things and phone for assistance if needed; Of course, that doesn't work for younger kids, but then the main focus should be not on schools closing but on preschools and other daycare options closing. The actual practical solution would be the old non-nuclear family; i.e. send the kids (and food supplies) to grandparents and have them spend some time in isolation there, while the "middle generation" works.
erentz 7y ago
It’s not way to late. The goal right now is to lower the rate of transmission to a point that the medical system can cope with it. We can still do that but every extra week of delay makes the situation worse and means the point where the medical system is overwhelmed arrives will be sooner. If we close all schools and public events and restaurants and so forth right now, we maybe have two to three months before it starts to look overwhelmed. If we wait another week to do it. That will look more like 1 month. If we wait two weeks. It’ll look more or less like game over and we will need extremely draconian looking measures at that point to get the transmission rate down.

usaar333 7y ago

School closures can be enormously disruptive if not handled correctly. As OP notes, who is going to watch the kids if you close schools? We have large numbers of essential services (medical, utility, food, etc.) that must keep running. - perhaps you could set up childcare for said workers, but again, you have to be careful here your prevention doesn't cause more harm.

PeterisP 7y ago
The whole point of school closures is to avoid kids from many families being together and mingling, so setting up a community childcare service for said workers is not appropriate. The counterpart to "who's going to work if they have to watch the kids?" is "who's going to work if they're infected because kids braught the virus from school?". Also, the childcare argument applies to just the first few years of the school - most of school-aged kids are old enough to stay home unsupervised if it's needed, and high school kids can supervise younger siblings.
- usaar333 7y ago
  > Also, the childcare argument applies to just the first few years of the school - most of school-aged kids are old enough to stay home unsupervised if it's needed, It's a problem for basically kids ages 0-11 (depending on where your cut-off is); that's strictly the majority of children and hits a huge percentage of the workforce. Again, you very well can end up worse off if you do this (someone needs to work on medical treatments, medical research, etc.)
  - PeterisP 7y ago
    In an epidemic, I'd put the cutoff much lower than that - I wouldn't feel entirely comfortable leaving an 8-year old home alone for the whole day in normal conditions, mostly because there's no really good reason for doing this, but during an epidemic that might be the safest option available; if you leave them appropriate lunch then 8 or 9 year old kid should be self-sufficient enough to not do stupid things and phone for assistance if needed; Of course, that doesn't work for younger kids, but then the main focus should be not on schools closing but on preschools and other daycare options closing. The actual practical solution would be the old non-nuclear family; i.e. send the kids (and food supplies) to grandparents and have them spend some time in isolation there, while the "middle generation" works.

erentz 7y ago

It’s not way to late. The goal right now is to lower the rate of transmission to a point that the medical system can cope with it. We can still do that but every extra week of delay makes the situation worse and means the point where the medical system is overwhelmed arrives will be sooner. If we close all schools and public events and restaurants and so forth right now, we maybe have two to three months before it starts to look overwhelmed. If we wait another week to do it. That will look more like 1 month. If we wait two weeks. It’ll look more or less like game over and we will need extremely draconian looking measures at that point to get the transmission rate down.