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> In the study last week from NEJM of 1099 hospital patients BTW that NJEM paper you keep referencing is very out of date. Yes it passed peer review and was pu

> In the study last week from NEJM of 1099 hospital patients BTW that NJEM paper you keep referencing is very out of date. Yes it passed peer review and was published last week, but it's using data from Jan 29. It was actually written nearly a month ago; I found a preprint of that paper posted Feb 3. You'd be aware of this if you were actively following the novel coronavirus situation. There's a more up-to-date paper published by China CDC that covers 72,314 patients / 44,672 confirmed cases using data thru Feb 11. I would reference figures from that paper instead. > I think you may be giving OP too much credit with their use of “cases” implying hospital cases (which is the 5% ICU number, it is not 5% of infections require the ICU) ... It is absolutely not 5% of “known” cases. No, he's correct. Current evidence shows at least 5% of confirmed cases require ICU care. From the WHO China report, they note that 6.1% of all cases are critical. They define critical as the following: "Critical cases are defined as respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation, shock or other organ failure that requires intensive care." These numbers are not just a China fluke. We're seeing similar critical percentages in other countries. For example, as of today, Singapore has 106 confirmed cases of which 7 are critical (~6.6%). > I don’t think HN commentators should play epidemiologist Isn't that what you're doing? [0] http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9a9b-fea8db1a8f51 http://weekly.chinacdc.cn/en/article/id/e53946e2-c6c4-41e9-9... [1] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-chi...

zaroth 7y ago
Thanks for the link. One interesting data point; > In China, the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1- 10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February (Figure 4). The Joint Mission noted that the standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak. So to highlight that, going forward, CFR of 0.7% of lab diagnosed cases.
- tristanj 7y ago
  Yes, assuming access to medical care. But we see that COVID19 quickly overwhelms medical systems, as it did to Wuhan & Iran, and upcoming in Italy & South Korea. For instance, this week 4 South Koreans died while waiting to be hospitalized. An additional 600 sick are still waiting for hospital beds. They don't have enough beds! And this is in the country with the 2nd most hospital beds per person! Many of the serious, and almost all of the severe cases will perish without medical care. Once the medical system is overwhelmed, the CFR could climb past 10%. https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbxm0s/south_korea_4_in_22_deaths_happened_while_waiting/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbxm0s/south_k... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp...

zaroth 7y ago

Thanks for the link. One interesting data point; > In China, the overall CFR was higher in the early stages of the outbreak (17.3% for cases with symptom onset from 1- 10 January) and has reduced over time to 0.7% for patients with symptom onset after 1 February (Figure 4). The Joint Mission noted that the standard of care has evolved over the course of the outbreak. So to highlight that, going forward, CFR of 0.7% of lab diagnosed cases.

tristanj 7y ago
Yes, assuming access to medical care. But we see that COVID19 quickly overwhelms medical systems, as it did to Wuhan & Iran, and upcoming in Italy & South Korea. For instance, this week 4 South Koreans died while waiting to be hospitalized. An additional 600 sick are still waiting for hospital beds. They don't have enough beds! And this is in the country with the 2nd most hospital beds per person! Many of the serious, and almost all of the severe cases will perish without medical care. Once the medical system is overwhelmed, the CFR could climb past 10%. https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbxm0s/south_korea_4_in_22_deaths_happened_while_waiting/ https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbxm0s/south_k... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hospital_beds https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_OECD_countries_by_hosp...