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That's not how math works. The 1% fatality rate is out of the people tested positive. The 20% serious symptoms rate is also out of the people tested positive. Y

by knzhou 7y ago

That's not how math works. The 1% fatality rate is out of the people tested positive. The 20% serious symptoms rate is also out of the people tested positive. You don't get to multiply these together.

Tomminn 7y ago
That's only "how math works" under the assumption that the people who tested positive is an unbiased sample of the population who have coronavirus. That is, you're implicitly assuming you're equally likely to be tested if you have symptoms or if you have no symptoms. The parent is suggesting the possibility that if you have symptoms you're far more likely to be tested than if you have none.
- m0zg 7y ago
  Exactly. People mildly "under the weather" in an area where infection numbers are known to be significant, would probably be scared to go to the hospital, too. I know I would not go unless shit got really bad.
- knzhou 7y ago
  That's true, but "1%" is already adjusted for this effect -- in the early days when China was getting overwhelmed, the number was much higher. 1% is the number that we've stabilized on within countries doing proactive, mass testing.
_bxg1 7y ago
If 80% of people will have no symptoms, and testing is being as conservative as it is (people going untested unless they show clear symptoms), then that is how math works. It suggests that that 20% encompasses at least those being tested, if not others too.
- flukus 7y ago
  > If 80% of people will have no symptoms I don't disagree, but it's not as skewed as you think. A lot of that 80% will be very ill and get tested, a 'mild' case is basically anyone not attached to an oxygen tank. Edit - Sigh, from the WHO: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses > The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Some patients may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat or diarrhea. These symptoms are usually mild and begin gradually. Some people become infected but don’t develop any symptoms and don't feel unwell. Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment. Around 1 out of every 6 people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing. "80% of people will have no symptoms" is not true.

by knzhou 7y ago

Tomminn 7y ago

That's only "how math works" under the assumption that the people who tested positive is an unbiased sample of the population who have coronavirus. That is, you're implicitly assuming you're equally likely to be tested if you have symptoms or if you have no symptoms. The parent is suggesting the possibility that if you have symptoms you're far more likely to be tested than if you have none.

m0zg 7y ago
Exactly. People mildly "under the weather" in an area where infection numbers are known to be significant, would probably be scared to go to the hospital, too. I know I would not go unless shit got really bad.
knzhou 7y ago
That's true, but "1%" is already adjusted for this effect -- in the early days when China was getting overwhelmed, the number was much higher. 1% is the number that we've stabilized on within countries doing proactive, mass testing.

_bxg1 7y ago

If 80% of people will have no symptoms, and testing is being as conservative as it is (people going untested unless they show clear symptoms), then that is how math works. It suggests that that 20% encompasses at least those being tested, if not others too.

flukus 7y ago
> If 80% of people will have no symptoms I don't disagree, but it's not as skewed as you think. A lot of that 80% will be very ill and get tested, a 'mild' case is basically anyone not attached to an oxygen tank. Edit - Sigh, from the WHO: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses > The most common symptoms of COVID-19 are fever, tiredness, and dry cough. Some patients may have aches and pains, nasal congestion, runny nose, sore throat or diarrhea. These symptoms are usually mild and begin gradually. Some people become infected but don’t develop any symptoms and don't feel unwell. Most people (about 80%) recover from the disease without needing special treatment. Around 1 out of every 6 people who gets COVID-19 becomes seriously ill and develops difficulty breathing. "80% of people will have no symptoms" is not true.