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If it becomes clear that containment can't work, then it no longer makes sense to disrupt the economy and people's lives with social distancing. But let's be c
by jlmorton 7y ago
If it becomes clear that containment can't work, then it no longer makes sense to disrupt the economy and people's lives with social distancing.
But let's be clear about the costs we're talking about. When we talk about the costs of legislation, we usually discuss the ten year cost. Every decade, influenza kills half a million people in the US. It has direct medical costs of $100 billion, and total productivity losses equal to almost a trillion dollars.
There's some evidence that people can be re-infected with coronavirus. If we have another influenza which people can catch again and again every year, this is an absolutely massive problem. If we can avoid that with short-term social distancing, we should, even if that's a major impact on people's lives.
If it's clear we no longer can, then we should stop. I guess our only disagreement is whether, or not containment still has any chance of working. If we believe it does not, then sure, social distancing is largely pointless, and only buys time.
- arcticbull 7y agoI'm with you that it's sub-optimal, and I'm all for trying -- it does appear to be working in China. The number of cases is down about 33% over peak. I just doubt that it'll hold. What I'm saying is that the level of panic right now is well beyond where it should be given the risks.
- qqqwerty 7y agoIs it though? Certainly some folks are over-reacting, but the vast majority of the population seems to be going about their normal routines. And considering that it might be possible to push transmission rates lower by educating the public on some fairly basic preventative measures, it probably makes sense to err on the side of caution/over-reaction while also trying to avoid triggering mass panic. Public Health officials are aware of all of this, and I assume they are doing their best to thread that needle as we speak. But I also don't have a ton of confidence in this current administration, so I guess we will see how this shakes out.