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Based on levels of pollution China has still not resumed production as of Feb 20-25. You'd think if it was discovered that it was just like the flu, they would

by sfj 7y ago

Based on levels of pollution China has still not resumed production as of Feb 20-25. You'd think if it was discovered that it was just like the flu, they would have resumed production by now. https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nitrogen-dioxide-plummets-over-china https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/146362/airborne-nit...

deleted 7y ago
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arcticbull 7y ago
Ok but it will once the severity becomes clear or they actually snuff out the virus locally. They’re on track to. Then Q2 is going to be looking up.
- sfj 7y ago
  Their initial response was to do largely what the USA is doing now. Hide the impacts, pretend everything is ok. They only reversed course when their hospitals became so overloaded that they had to do something. People seem fixated on this idea that a 1-2% death rate is going to be mean that 1-2% are going to die, but this ignores hospitals being overloaded. From: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720... A total of 81% of cases in the JAMA study were classified as mild, meaning they did not result in pneumonia or resulted in only mild pneumonia. Fourteen percent of cases were severe (marked by difficulty breathing), and 5% were critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure). So from this study, 19% of the cases were severe and required hospitalization. There are 320 million people in the us, lets say 30% get it at once. That's 320m * .3 * .19 = 18 million people. Of course, some of that 18 million will be taken care of by hospitals, but that would account for only a tiny fraction, there are only about 91k ICU hospital beds in the US From: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2020/cbnreport-02272020.html http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2020/cbnreport-02... 46,500 medical ICU beds in the United States and perhaps an equal number of other ICU beds that could be used in a crisis.

by sfj 7y ago

deleted 7y ago

[deleted]

arcticbull 7y ago

Ok but it will once the severity becomes clear or they actually snuff out the virus locally. They’re on track to. Then Q2 is going to be looking up.

sfj 7y ago
Their initial response was to do largely what the USA is doing now. Hide the impacts, pretend everything is ok. They only reversed course when their hospitals became so overloaded that they had to do something. People seem fixated on this idea that a 1-2% death rate is going to be mean that 1-2% are going to die, but this ignores hospitals being overloaded. From: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-72000-covid-19-patients-finds-23-death-rate http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/02/study-720... A total of 81% of cases in the JAMA study were classified as mild, meaning they did not result in pneumonia or resulted in only mild pneumonia. Fourteen percent of cases were severe (marked by difficulty breathing), and 5% were critical (respiratory failure, septic shock, and/or multiple organ dysfunction or failure). So from this study, 19% of the cases were severe and required hospitalization. There are 320 million people in the us, lets say 30% get it at once. That's 320m * .3 * .19 = 18 million people. Of course, some of that 18 million will be taken care of by hospitals, but that would account for only a tiny fraction, there are only about 91k ICU hospital beds in the US From: http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2020/cbnreport-02272020.html http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/cbn/2020/cbnreport-02... 46,500 medical ICU beds in the United States and perhaps an equal number of other ICU beds that could be used in a crisis.