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This is a really weird take I keep hearing from people. Let's say Covid-19 is equal to influenza in every way. That is a disaster. Influenza is one of the wo

This is a really weird take I keep hearing from people. Let's say Covid-19 is equal to influenza in every way. That is a disaster. Influenza is one of the worst illnesses we deal with. If we now have another illness continuously spreading in the community equal in impact to influenza, which infects 35 million people annually, resulting in hundreds of thousands and sometimes millions of hospitalizations, and 30,000 - 100,000 deaths each year, that is an absolute calamity. I don't think anyone thinks we're all going to die from this. But preventing this disease from becoming a permanent addition to the routine illnesses we deal with is a big deal, and people are worried about the necessary social distancing required to contain it. > (b) that shouldn't really matter to us. Longer term, we'll have a vaccine and it'll be added to the usual seasonal flu vaccine package. That's a very optimistic take. We have indeed become much better at developing vaccines, but it's not clear that we'll necessarily be able to develop an effective one for coronaviruses. You say that we'll just add it to the seasonal flu vaccine package, but we don't have effective vaccines for influenza. They mitigate risk, but the mutation rate of influenza is such that seasonal vaccines generally only provide a 60% protection, and some seasons much less. And we've been developing these vaccines for decades, with tens of billions spent on flu vaccines and research. We don't have any vaccine against the common cold, despite massive amounts of research towards that. Most colds are caused by rhinoviruses, but about 15% are caused by species of coronaviruses. And we haven't developed any vaccines against them.

arcticbull 7y ago
> I don't think anyone thinks we're all going to die from this. But preventing this disease from becoming a permanent addition to the routine illnesses we deal with is a big deal, and people are worried about the necessary social distancing required to contain it. With 55% of people asymptomatic based on the WHO report, I'd say that ship has long since sailed. > Let's say Covid-19 is equal to influenza in every way. That is a disaster. It's not ideal to be sure, but it certainly doesn't mean we should be enforcing lockdowns of cities with drones and tanks. The reaction is way overblown. People are hoarding supplies over the flu.
- jlmorton 7y ago
  If it becomes clear that containment can't work, then it no longer makes sense to disrupt the economy and people's lives with social distancing. But let's be clear about the costs we're talking about. When we talk about the costs of legislation, we usually discuss the ten year cost. Every decade, influenza kills half a million people in the US. It has direct medical costs of $100 billion, and total productivity losses equal to almost a trillion dollars. There's some evidence that people can be re-infected with coronavirus. If we have another influenza which people can catch again and again every year, this is an absolutely massive problem. If we can avoid that with short-term social distancing, we should, even if that's a major impact on people's lives. If it's clear we no longer can, then we should stop. I guess our only disagreement is whether, or not containment still has any chance of working. If we believe it does not, then sure, social distancing is largely pointless, and only buys time.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    I'm with you that it's sub-optimal, and I'm all for trying -- it does appear to be working in China. The number of cases is down about 33% over peak. I just doubt that it'll hold. What I'm saying is that the level of panic right now is well beyond where it should be given the risks.
    - qqqwerty 7y ago
      Is it though? Certainly some folks are over-reacting, but the vast majority of the population seems to be going about their normal routines. And considering that it might be possible to push transmission rates lower by educating the public on some fairly basic preventative measures, it probably makes sense to err on the side of caution/over-reaction while also trying to avoid triggering mass panic. Public Health officials are aware of all of this, and I assume they are doing their best to thread that needle as we speak. But I also don't have a ton of confidence in this current administration, so I guess we will see how this shakes out.
- foogazi 7y ago
  > People are hoarding supplies over the flu. But it’s a new flu - how much is it worth to stop the spread and not have to deal with it forever
mrfusion 7y ago
I really doubt anyone is researching curing the common cold.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  That's a very odd assertion. https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2019/09/16/scientists-close-in-on-a-cure-for-the-common-cold/ https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2019/09/16/scientists-close-i...
  - mrfusion 7y ago
    I think you can find research here and there but I still don’t think we’re spending “massive” amounts on it like the OP said.
    - arcticbull 7y ago
      Indeed, we generally focus on things that matter.
    - ceejayoz 7y ago
      Right. The reality lies in the middle between both of your incorrect assertions.

arcticbull 7y ago

> I don't think anyone thinks we're all going to die from this. But preventing this disease from becoming a permanent addition to the routine illnesses we deal with is a big deal, and people are worried about the necessary social distancing required to contain it. With 55% of people asymptomatic based on the WHO report, I'd say that ship has long since sailed. > Let's say Covid-19 is equal to influenza in every way. That is a disaster. It's not ideal to be sure, but it certainly doesn't mean we should be enforcing lockdowns of cities with drones and tanks. The reaction is way overblown. People are hoarding supplies over the flu.

jlmorton 7y ago
If it becomes clear that containment can't work, then it no longer makes sense to disrupt the economy and people's lives with social distancing. But let's be clear about the costs we're talking about. When we talk about the costs of legislation, we usually discuss the ten year cost. Every decade, influenza kills half a million people in the US. It has direct medical costs of $100 billion, and total productivity losses equal to almost a trillion dollars. There's some evidence that people can be re-infected with coronavirus. If we have another influenza which people can catch again and again every year, this is an absolutely massive problem. If we can avoid that with short-term social distancing, we should, even if that's a major impact on people's lives. If it's clear we no longer can, then we should stop. I guess our only disagreement is whether, or not containment still has any chance of working. If we believe it does not, then sure, social distancing is largely pointless, and only buys time.
- arcticbull 7y ago
  I'm with you that it's sub-optimal, and I'm all for trying -- it does appear to be working in China. The number of cases is down about 33% over peak. I just doubt that it'll hold. What I'm saying is that the level of panic right now is well beyond where it should be given the risks.
  - qqqwerty 7y ago
    Is it though? Certainly some folks are over-reacting, but the vast majority of the population seems to be going about their normal routines. And considering that it might be possible to push transmission rates lower by educating the public on some fairly basic preventative measures, it probably makes sense to err on the side of caution/over-reaction while also trying to avoid triggering mass panic. Public Health officials are aware of all of this, and I assume they are doing their best to thread that needle as we speak. But I also don't have a ton of confidence in this current administration, so I guess we will see how this shakes out.
foogazi 7y ago
> People are hoarding supplies over the flu. But it’s a new flu - how much is it worth to stop the spread and not have to deal with it forever

mrfusion 7y ago

I really doubt anyone is researching curing the common cold.

ceejayoz 7y ago
That's a very odd assertion. https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2019/09/16/scientists-close-in-on-a-cure-for-the-common-cold/ https://scopeblog.stanford.edu/2019/09/16/scientists-close-i...
- mrfusion 7y ago
  I think you can find research here and there but I still don’t think we’re spending “massive” amounts on it like the OP said.
  - arcticbull 7y ago
    Indeed, we generally focus on things that matter.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    Right. The reality lies in the middle between both of your incorrect assertions.