Look at the distribution of equity returns. A melt up would be 3%+ down, and people panicking (we saw panic towards the end of last week). A recovery would be s

Look at the distribution of equity returns. A melt up would be 3%+ down, and people panicking (we saw panic towards the end of last week). A recovery would be stop falling or gain on the week. I would put the recovery scenario at far better than chance though. It looks like 60-70% to me. We may sell off more if things get worse later but right now, we have got through the point of maximum panic (just from what I witnessed, this was a December situation...I live in the UK so our December was motivated by Brexit but back then people were talking about stockpiling, etc. it was one of those times where you don't know whether to laugh or cry).