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Los Angeles isn't huge. Arrivals in Shanghai/Shenzen/Ningbo (and to a lesser extent, HK) are definitely down and vessels are staying in port but the world hasn'

Los Angeles isn't huge. Arrivals in Shanghai/Shenzen/Ningbo (and to a lesser extent, HK) are definitely down and vessels are staying in port but the world hasn't stopped. Busan is fine, Singapore is fine, Jebel is fine, Rotterdam is fine, etc. Maybe the virus gets worse somehow but when things resume, they will resume quickly. If you look at traffic stats for the Chinese cities above, you will see they improved last week...last Monday Shenzen was actually back to normal. Again, maybe the virus gets worse but the evidence is that we have stabilised.

ohazi 7y ago
The Port of Los Angeles is the busiest container port in the United States. 20% of all US-bound cargo moves through this port.
- hogFeast 7y ago
  "in the United States"...LA is the #17 biggest port in the world. The top 3 Chinese ports do something like 10x the volume of LA.
- dehrmann 7y ago
  Also worth noting that the Port of Long Beach is literally next door and handles 40% of the volume of the Port or Los Angeles.
Johnny555 7y ago
I don't know what qualifies as "huge", but around $300B worth of cargo passes through the Port of Los Angeles every year. And other ports are also reporting slowdowns. It takes about 2 weeks for a cargo ship to reach the USA from China, but it can take 30 days or longer to get a shipment through the entire cargo chain from start to finish, so even if things are recovering on the China side, we're still in for at least a few more weeks of disruption. And since cargo is stacking up on both sides, it'll probably take months to get everything back on track.
- hogFeast 7y ago
  The top port does something like 4x the volume. Los Angeles is in the top 20 (just #17) but it isn't large. I just told you what the volume is (you can check for yourself, all of this is public information) for other ports. It won't take months. That is just not factually accurate, it takes a day or two to load the largest container ships, and they load more than one at once. It isn't "stacking up", that isn't how ports work...if you can't get space, you don't stack your stuff at the port, you just don't send it.
  - ceejayoz 7y ago
    A 5,000 page book is still large if there's a 20,000 page book out there.
arcticbull 7y ago
Evidence is also that the virus just isn't that bad, it's the same order of magnitude as a bad seasonal flu. We definitely didn't know this at the start, so the reaction was justified, but evidence is showing us that this is both (a) likely not a virus we can contain in part because it's just not that bad and (b) that shouldn't really matter to us. Longer term, we'll have a vaccine and it'll be added to the usual seasonal flu vaccine package. Time to accept it: we're all going to get the coronavirus, and you know what? The vast, vast majority of us are going to be just fine. [1] So we're clear, the seasonal flu has killed 80,000 people so far this year vs 3,000 from nCov-19. The transmission rate is a bit higher than H1N1, the fatality rate is a bit higher than H1N1 (0.6% vs 0.45%). Treating this as some sort of ebola pandemic where we're all going to die is a massive overreaction. From the WHO report almost half of people are asymptomatic. Death rate for people under 7 is 0%. Under 40 is 0.2%. Under 50 is 0.4%. For older folks or the immunocompromised, it's naturally higher, because they're older and immunocompromised. Data shows the H1N1 flu is 10% fatal to old folks, too. We've reached peak unsubstantiated fear. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vac...
- ookblah 7y ago
  The thing is where is the balance in response to this? I too agree that it's going to just be one of those things we deal with every year like the flu, but the difference between it being manageable vs. out of control relies on everyone collectively having a set of standards. If everyone uses some common sense, washes hands, is on top of their symptoms and goes to the hospital, etc. everything will be fine. If everyone just acts like nothing is wrong you could have cluster outbreaks and seriously affect pockets of people. The fear factor plays in here. The fact that we haven't tested nearly as many in the USA and are acting as more of a passive observer gives me concern.
  - deleted 7y ago
    [deleted]
  - Johnny555 7y ago
    If everyone uses some common sense, washes hands, is on top of their symptoms and goes to the hospital, etc. everything will be fine. Is that true though? Half the country gets a flu shot, yet between 10M and 50M still get the flu each year. And to be honest, I'd be very reluctant to go to a hospital for any reason right now unless I felt I was in danger of dying since everyone that thinks they might have coronavirus is going to be sitting in the waiting room beside me. Is simple handwashing enough top stop the spread of this coronavirus, or is stronger isolation needed? China seems to have a handle on the infection growth but as far as I know, many areas are still on lockdown.
Avalaxy 7y ago
I live in Rotterdam. You better believe the amount of containers coming in has recently drastically decreased.

ohazi 7y ago

The Port of Los Angeles is the busiest container port in the United States. 20% of all US-bound cargo moves through this port.

hogFeast 7y ago
"in the United States"...LA is the #17 biggest port in the world. The top 3 Chinese ports do something like 10x the volume of LA.
dehrmann 7y ago
Also worth noting that the Port of Long Beach is literally next door and handles 40% of the volume of the Port or Los Angeles.

Johnny555 7y ago

I don't know what qualifies as "huge", but around $300B worth of cargo passes through the Port of Los Angeles every year. And other ports are also reporting slowdowns. It takes about 2 weeks for a cargo ship to reach the USA from China, but it can take 30 days or longer to get a shipment through the entire cargo chain from start to finish, so even if things are recovering on the China side, we're still in for at least a few more weeks of disruption. And since cargo is stacking up on both sides, it'll probably take months to get everything back on track.

hogFeast 7y ago
The top port does something like 4x the volume. Los Angeles is in the top 20 (just #17) but it isn't large. I just told you what the volume is (you can check for yourself, all of this is public information) for other ports. It won't take months. That is just not factually accurate, it takes a day or two to load the largest container ships, and they load more than one at once. It isn't "stacking up", that isn't how ports work...if you can't get space, you don't stack your stuff at the port, you just don't send it.
- ceejayoz 7y ago
  A 5,000 page book is still large if there's a 20,000 page book out there.

arcticbull 7y ago

Evidence is also that the virus just isn't that bad, it's the same order of magnitude as a bad seasonal flu. We definitely didn't know this at the start, so the reaction was justified, but evidence is showing us that this is both (a) likely not a virus we can contain in part because it's just not that bad and (b) that shouldn't really matter to us. Longer term, we'll have a vaccine and it'll be added to the usual seasonal flu vaccine package. Time to accept it: we're all going to get the coronavirus, and you know what? The vast, vast majority of us are going to be just fine. [1] So we're clear, the seasonal flu has killed 80,000 people so far this year vs 3,000 from nCov-19. The transmission rate is a bit higher than H1N1, the fatality rate is a bit higher than H1N1 (0.6% vs 0.45%). Treating this as some sort of ebola pandemic where we're all going to die is a massive overreaction. From the WHO report almost half of people are asymptomatic. Death rate for people under 7 is 0%. Under 40 is 0.2%. Under 50 is 0.4%. For older folks or the immunocompromised, it's naturally higher, because they're older and immunocompromised. Data shows the H1N1 flu is 10% fatal to old folks, too. We've reached peak unsubstantiated fear. [1] https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vaccine/607000/ https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/02/covid-vac...

ookblah 7y ago
The thing is where is the balance in response to this? I too agree that it's going to just be one of those things we deal with every year like the flu, but the difference between it being manageable vs. out of control relies on everyone collectively having a set of standards. If everyone uses some common sense, washes hands, is on top of their symptoms and goes to the hospital, etc. everything will be fine. If everyone just acts like nothing is wrong you could have cluster outbreaks and seriously affect pockets of people. The fear factor plays in here. The fact that we haven't tested nearly as many in the USA and are acting as more of a passive observer gives me concern.
- deleted 7y ago
  [deleted]
- Johnny555 7y ago
  If everyone uses some common sense, washes hands, is on top of their symptoms and goes to the hospital, etc. everything will be fine. Is that true though? Half the country gets a flu shot, yet between 10M and 50M still get the flu each year. And to be honest, I'd be very reluctant to go to a hospital for any reason right now unless I felt I was in danger of dying since everyone that thinks they might have coronavirus is going to be sitting in the waiting room beside me. Is simple handwashing enough top stop the spread of this coronavirus, or is stronger isolation needed? China seems to have a handle on the infection growth but as far as I know, many areas are still on lockdown.

Avalaxy 7y ago

I live in Rotterdam. You better believe the amount of containers coming in has recently drastically decreased.