4 ms·

I'm seeing smoke. ~15% severe cases, ~5% critical. Numbers growing exponentially everywhere. Long incubation time with little symptoms most of the time making

I'm seeing smoke. ~15% severe cases, ~5% critical. Numbers growing exponentially everywhere. Long incubation time with little symptoms most of the time making it silent until it's too late. European governments not even trying to contain it anymore. Already very loaded health care system are going to be overloaded. Information heavily controlled to avoid panic. Seemingly disproportionate Chinese response for something western countries treat as common cold. The unknown in general : 14% reappearance of disease in recovered cases. Some cases of sudden death in healthy individuals. (Cytokine storm on reinfection ? ) Probability of mutations becoming higher with increasing number of cases. The outs : - Miracle cure : (chloroquine ?, Remdesivir ?, other ?) - Hot weather (not very optimistic as it seems to spread in hot countries) - Worldwide quarantines - Mutation of a less severe variant (virus is from a quite stable family) - Vaccine in 2 years. - Everyone gets it, herd immunity builds up, more than 10%-15% percent virus related death among the elderly + unknown complications. I'm very concerned, taking care of 2 ( > 90 ) relatives. I stocked a month of food. Already washing hands and taking precautions. Would quarantine if I could.

qznc 7y ago
Look at the WHO dashboard [0] at "Cases by date of report", I see less than 2k every day since February 16. This is not exponential growth but stagnation. Of course, the virus is spreading and it can explode at random places. That is a risk and WHO rates it as "Very High" currently. However, they also say "If you are not in an area where COVID-19 is spreading,or have not travelled from an area where COVID-19 is spreading,or have not been in contact with an infected patient, your risk of infection is low." [1] [0] https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5b... [1] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200229-sitrep-40-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=7203e653_2 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...
- missosoup 7y ago
  Just a heads up, the number of reported cases is not the actual number of cases, not even close. Reported cases only come after positive testing, and testing is extremely selective and limited by healthcare capacity. A friend who works in a hospital said that they can only request a test if the patient is bad enough to need intensive care. And even then the request may be denied. The case count doesn't mean anything anymore. The world's healthcare systems don't have the capacity to track the spread.

qznc 7y ago

Look at the WHO dashboard [0] at "Cases by date of report", I see less than 2k every day since February 16. This is not exponential growth but stagnation. Of course, the virus is spreading and it can explode at random places. That is a risk and WHO rates it as "Very High" currently. However, they also say "If you are not in an area where COVID-19 is spreading,or have not travelled from an area where COVID-19 is spreading,or have not been in contact with an infected patient, your risk of infection is low." [1] [0] https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5beeeee1b9125cd https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/685d0ace521648f8a5b... [1] https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200229-sitrep-40-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=7203e653_2 https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situati...

missosoup 7y ago
Just a heads up, the number of reported cases is not the actual number of cases, not even close. Reported cases only come after positive testing, and testing is extremely selective and limited by healthcare capacity. A friend who works in a hospital said that they can only request a test if the patient is bad enough to need intensive care. And even then the request may be denied. The case count doesn't mean anything anymore. The world's healthcare systems don't have the capacity to track the spread.