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Highly interesting. Add to that the fact that 50% of all men in China smoke and you might end up with a higher mortality rate than elsewhere (1). On a larger n
by baxtr 7y ago
Highly interesting. Add to that the fact that 50% of all men in China smoke and you might end up with a higher mortality rate than elsewhere (1).
On a larger note, I am very surprised that death rates are calculated so naively by many and potential uncertainties are not accounted for. Like: high number of undetected cases, because of very mild cases. Skewed population factors like smoking, and genetics.
(1) https://fortune.com/2020/02/19/coronavirus-china-smoking-rate-men/ https://fortune.com/2020/02/19/coronavirus-china-smoking-rat...
- Geee 7y agoIt's still too early to tell, and it's just not possible to make accurate calculations if the data itself is missing. It's known that there aren't a lot of mild cases. Also, the mortality doesn't seem to be lower elsewhere. For example, in Iran there is 43 deaths and 123 recovered, and in Italy 29 deaths and 50 recovered.
- mkagenius 7y ago> Italy 29 deaths and 50 recovered. yes the recovery data seems delayed, there are 3000+ koreans affected and only 30 recovered. While half of chinese have recovered.
- lbeltrame 7y agoIt also depends on the definition of "recovered". Our first recovered patient was called such only after almost a week of repeated tests. Which means that the data will lag considerably compared to deaths and new infections.
- baxtr 7y agoHow do you know they aren’t a lot of mild cases that go undetected? From what I’ve read 80%+ are mild, only 10-15% severe, at least in Europe. Most clusters can’t be backtracked to patient zero anymore Also, numbers from Iran can definitely not be trusted
- yodsanklai 7y ago> It's known that there aren't a lot of mild cases. On the cruise ship, about a third of the cases are asymptomic [1]. [1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025866v1 https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025866v...
- baxtr 7y agoAnd that’s with even a highly skewed population age group.
- marvin 7y agoThe data indicates that most cases are in fact mild to moderate. Please don't spread misinformation. There's enough people stirring up a panic already.
- _-___________-_ 7y ago> It's known that there aren't a lot of mild cases. This is bullshit. There's no other word for it.